The Premier Lacrosse League returns to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough this weekend to kick off the postseason. The quarterfinal round features 3 games that are all rematches of closely contested regular-season games. In the playoffs, team count on their stars to elevate their game. All the prop picks this week had big games in their first meeting against their opponent, and the numbers show they could poised for repeat performances. As the year has gone on, multiple books have expanded their prop offerings, now including first-half props, points, goals, assists, groundballs and other stats.
Marcus Holman over 2.5 goals (+160)
Every conversation about the greatest shooter in the world needs to include Marcus Holman. This week, the Archers will need his skills in a big way. In the teams’ first matchup this season, Holman was absolutely on fire. He had 5 total goals on the day, including hitting a 2-pointer. He was able to get 9 shots off that afternoon. All of his goals were assisted, including 2 from linemate Will Manny. The Archers as a team have a 54.8% assist rate this year, and Holman leads the league in assisted goals with 17.
Jack Kelly will be in net for the Redwoods on Saturday, which is not the matchup most of the Archers want to see. For his career, Manny is just a 7% shooter against Kelly. Tom Schreiber is at 25%. Matt Moore went 0-3 their first time out, and Connor Fields went 0-2. Holman, however, has exceptional numbers. He’s a career 50% shooter over 2 games against Kelly.
From a team offense point of view, the Archers are poised for a solid afternoon. They have the most efficient settled offense in the league, scoring 78 goals on 247 settled possessions. The Redwoods have the least efficient defense in settled situations, giving up 83 goals on 255 possessions. The Redwoods also look to play very little transition lacrosse. The Archers have created the second most transition shots in the PLL this year. Transition opportunities means shooting chances for Holman against an unsettled Redwoods defense.
Holman was a key to the game in the first matchup between these teams, finishing great looks at goal that came off strong dodges from other players or unsettled situations. Eddy Glazener is out this weekend, and he’s been the primary voice and organizer of the Redwoods defense. Holman should be able to get plenty more of those looks this go around, and his track record against Kelly says he’ll finish them.
Read our full quarterfinal preview for Archers vs Redwoods
Rob Pannell over 2.5 assists (+135)
This prop has been available at plus-money for the last 2 weeks running. Rob Pannell closed the regular season with a game against the Chrome in which he had just one assist. But his assist totals in the prior five games were 6, 3, 3, 2, 4. That 4-assist game came against the Archers, who Pannell will face this weekend at Gillette Stadium. Pannell hasn’t had a game with fewer than three points since June. The Attackman of the Year nominee will be heavily involved in the Redwoods’ game plan this week. The Archers are strong defensively against shooters from almost every spot on the field, with the exception of the low wings. From the low lefty wing, the Archers allow a 31% shooting percentage, and from the low righty wing it’s 26%, both are bottom 3 numbers in the league.
The Redwoods initiate with a dodge more than any team in the league. They’ve taken 231 shots out of sets initiated with a dodge, the next highest in the league is 204, and scored 62 goals in those sets, the next highest is 49. Those dodges either come from the midfield via players such as Charlie Bertrand, Myles Jones or Sergio Perkovic, or from Pannell at attack. This year, Pannell has gone from predominantly dodging to score or draw slides to dodging to feed. Pannell is fifth in the PLL in assist opportunities with 49, and they’re converted at a massive 44.9% rate. He finds shooters in spots they where can finish a high percentage shot.
This week, Pannell will undoubtedly be matched up with Defenseman of the Year candidate Graeme Hossack, as he was for much of their Week 5 contest. Pannell was able to separate and distribute in that game, with each of his assists going to a different goalscorer. If he can do it again, finding the low wing scorers on the offense in Heningburg, Ryder Garnsey and Matt Kavanagh should be a major part of the Redwoods gameplan.
Jack Hannah over 1.5 points (+100)
Jack Hannah closed the season with a massive game against the Archers, scoring 4 goals on 7 shots, 6 of which were on net. Hannah has always been a high-volume shooter, dating back to his Denver days. He can separate well from short sticks, and it’s rare that he’ll see a long-stick defender given his linemates on the Waterdogs. Hannah’s lowest shot total in a game this year is 4, and he hasn’t taken fewer than 6 shots in a game since that game, which was Week 2.
Hannah should have more goals than he does. Analytics show his expected goal total is 12, which is higher than is actual total. Of his 65 shots this year, 41 have hit the net, and yet he’s shooting only 17%. In the matchup with Atlas on 8/6, Hannah finished with a goal and an assist, he showed off the dodging skill that allows him to free his hands with regularity.
One of Hannah’s biggest assets in this game might be that he does his back work from mid-range and out. He’s not going to be scoring on the doorstep often. If that sounds backwards, it’s because against almost every goalie, it is. But this weekend he’s up against Jack Concannon. Up for Goalie of the Year, Concannon has a long track record of robbing would-be dunks. This season, he’s been over 60% saves on shots from 5 yards and in. If he’s hot, as counterintuitive as it sounds, the adjustment is often to shoot from further away.
Concannon has given up the most 2-point goals in the league, and teams are shooting 26% from 2 against the Atlas defense. Waterdogs have the third-most 2-point goals in the league this year. In this matchup, Hannah could hit the points over in a single shot.
Read our full quarterfinal preview for Atlas vs Waterdogs
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