Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got a jam-packed Week 12 Sunday slate with a ton of great matchups, including this classic AFC North rivalry showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers are coming off a divisional loss to the Browns, while the Bengals just took a devastating blow as QB Joe Burrow has been lost for the season due to a wrist injury. Kenny Pickett vs Jake Browning isn’t the ideal QB matchup, but it’s still Steelers vs Bengals and that’s worth celebrating with a Same Game Parlay.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 12 picks on sides and totals. And now let’s get right into this Steelers vs Bengals SGP.
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (+280)
Jake Browning 250+ passing yards (+290)
Parlay odds: +1358
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out at over 13/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (+280)
To start this Same Game Parlay we have the Bengals on this alternate spread. Obviously Cincy losing Joe Burrow is massive, but this is more a fade of the Steelers than any thing else. Pittsburgh’s 6-4 record couldn’t possibly be more fraudulent, as they’ve been outgained in every game this season. ESPN reported on Saturday that WR Diontae Johnson got into a “heated argument” with teammate Minkah Fitzpatrick that had to be broken up by Cam Heyward and TJ Watt.
Johnson apparently was also “chirping” the coaching staff all the way to the locker room. If that’s not a sign that things are on the verge of falling apart, I’m not sure what is. To call the offense anemic would be an understatement, and they finally fired OC Matt Canada this week after a 10-point output in a loss to the Browns.
Unfortunately their quarterback is still Kenny Pickett, so I don’t think firing Canada is going to have too much of an impact. Pickett incredibly has thrown only 1 touchdown pass since October 8, and is averaging just 6.1 yards per pass attempt on the year. At this point it’s pretty clear Mitch Trubisky would be an upgrade, but since the Steelers kept improbably winning games there hasn’t been a reason to make a switch.
The Bengals have played a really tough schedule lately, with their past 4 games coming against the Ravens, Bills, Texans and 49ers. This is a huge step down in competition for them, and their defense should feast against Pickett.
Jake Browning 250+ passing yards (+290)
All we need to cash this Same Game Parlay at nearly 14/1 odds is one good game from Browning in his first start. The former Washington star was thrown into a really tough spot last week, getting his first NFL action on the road in primetime against an elite Ravens team in place of an injured Burrow. And he still managed to hold his own and protect the football while making a couple of big plays and throwing with anticipation.
He’ll also have Ja’Marr Chase at his disposal, a luxury few signal-callers have in their first NFL start. His touchdown to Chase last week was a genuinely impressive throw, and that was without getting any real reps with him at practice. Browning is also facing a Steelers pass defense that is a lot better in reputation than in reality. Pittsburgh ranks 23rd in passing yards per game allowed and 20th in yards per attempt allowed.
This is a below-average secondary even when healthy, and they have ruled out Minkah Fitzpatrick again with his hamstring injury. Not having the star safety out there will make things a lot easier for Browning.
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