The Week 5 NFL game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills marks a small piece of sports betting history as the Steelers become the final team in the league to be listed as underdogs of 14 points or more since the 1970 merger. The Steelers are 1-3 and their odds reflect the tough task facing them as they go up against the 3-1 Buffalo Bills. A spread as big as this always makes things interesting for bettors, but should you take the huge start with Pittsburgh or trust Buffalo to dominate? Our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for Steelers vs Bills, so let’s break it down.
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NFL Week 5 Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills prediction
The Steelers begin a new era for this game as rookie Kenny Pickett makes his first start for the team. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin opted for experience at the start of the season, giving veteran Mitch Trubisky the first chance to lead his offence, but although the Steelers opened with a surprise win over the Bengals, defeats to the Patriots, Browns and Jets have followed. Trubisky was benched at halftime of last week’s game and gets the chance to start in one of the toughest games possible.
The Bills started the season with wide-margin wins over the Rams and Titans, but have not looked so dominant since, losing in Miami before needing a big comeback to take down the Ravens 23-20 last week. They will need a much bigger win to cover the spread this week, so let’s take a look at the lines for Sunday’s game.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills spread, odds & betting lines
Point spread: Steelers +14; Bills -14
Total points over/under: 46.5 points
Money line odds: Steelers +640; Bills -750
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills expert picks
Steelers vs Bills against the spread pick: Steelers +14 (-110) over Bills
It’s the dawn of the Kenny Pickett era for the Pittsburgh Steelers. After Mitchell Trubisky was unceremoniously benched in a loss to the Jets last week, the first-round rookie will take over under center for this Week 5 matchup. And Pickett is going to be put in a tough spot for his first career start. He’s going on the road to Buffalo to face a ferocious Bills defense. It’s a tough environment for any young quarterback to play in, but getting 2 touchdowns on the spread is too good to pass up. Buffalo has received an endless amount of hype and positive coverage, but it has looked far from dominant over the past couple of weeks.
Two weeks ago the Bills lost to the Dolphins and last week they mounted a furious comeback to squeak past the Ravens by 3 points. No Mike Tomlin team is going to get punked, and Pittsburgh can at least keep things competitive. Buffalo’s offense has not played nearly as well as some people might think. Josh Allen completed only 53% of his passes last week for just 5.9 yards per attempt. That was a week after averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt against Miami — not conducive to covering 14-point spreads like this. The insertion of Pickett into the lineup will give the Steelers a much-needed energy boost if nothing else, and he certainly can’t be any worse than Trubisky was. Pickett’s limited action against the Jets already showed he gives this offense more upside.
Be sure to check out our full Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills predictions
Steelers vs Bills over/under total pick: Under 46.5 (-110)
Assuming the Steelers keep this one somewhat close, it’s likely going to be because their defense steps up and not because Pickett lights up the scoreboard. Buffalo has already made life miserable for much more accomplished quarterbacks such as Matthew Stafford this season, so Pickett going on the road for the first start of his pro career is a tough ask. The Steelers will likely look to make things as simple as possible for their rookie by running it a ton with Najee Harris.
The Bills’ offense has taken a step back over the past couple of weeks and their blocking is a major concern. They haven’t had much of a downfield passing attack this season because Allen isn’t able to hold on to the ball for too long. While Pickett is probably better than Trubisky, he didn’t look all that comfortable in his NFL debut last week — and that was at home against the Jets. This is a whole different test.
Steelers vs Bills best player prop bet: Kenny Pickett under 204.5 passing yards (-125)
This will be Kenny Pickett’s first NFL start, and with that excitement also comes nerves. We saw some shades of that last week as he completed every pass he threw, it just happened to be to both teams. He was 10/13, but the 3 incompletions were all interceptions. That was against a weak Jets defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in QB pressure.
Pickett had a lot more time in the pocket last week than he will this week against a Buffalo defense that ranks 6th in sacks and 1st in interceptions. Expect to see a few more errant throws by Pickett when he gets pressured. Diontae Johnson is listed as questionable for this matchup, and if the receiver is ruled out, Pickett will lose the best option Pittsburgh has.
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