Caleb Wilfinger
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Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season has arrived, and to say things are going great for the Pickswise NFL handicappers would be an understatement. This year, our experts boast a 47-34-1 record against the spread, including a winner on Thursday’s Commanders vs Bears contest.
Now, we’ve included the best bet of the week from 4 of our sharpest NFL experts. So that’s 4 NFL Week 6 best bets, all in one place! Let’s dive in to this week’s best bets.
Read our NFL picks for EVERY Week 6 matchup
Howard Bender: Buffalo Bills -3 (+100) over Kansas City Chiefs
The key factor in this game is how the Bills defense matches up against Patrick Mahomes and his weapons. Injuries to safety Jordan Poyer, cornerback Christian Benford and linebacker Tremain Edwards have hampered the Bills in recent weeks, but Poyer and Edmunds are trending up for this week’s game. That’s going to make things difficult for Kansas City as the Chiefs receivers still look like they are struggling to get on the same page as Mahomes. His work with Kelce is above reproach, but the Bills rank first overall in DVOA against the tight end position, so it’s going to come down to effectiveness running the ball and whether or not a secondary pass-catcher can come up big.
Unfortunately for Kansas City’s defense, Josh Allen and his receivers are playing on a whole other level right now. There is no rest for the weary as we’ve witnessed them run up the score on soft pass defenses and they don’t take their foot off the gas at all. The Chiefs have struggled in coverage this season and have coughed up 12 passing touchdowns with opposing quarterbacks posting a 105.5 passer rating against them.
Check out our full Buffalo Bills vs KC Chiefs predictions
Jared Smith: Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (-110) over Jacksonville Jaguars
This is a great spot to jump on the Colts at home under a field goal considering this line was a full touchdown when it opened over the summer. The revenge vibes will be strong after the Jags embarrassed their division rival 24-0 just 4 weeks ago, dropping Frank Reich’s ATS record against the AFC South to 11-15-1, and 1-7-1 against Jacksonville. However, since it’s been mostly downhill after a “same old Jags” type of performance on Sunday against the lowly Texans as Trevor Lawrence had the lowest CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) of any QB in the NFL against a vanilla Lovie Smith defense, throwing multiple interceptions for the first time all season. That’s good news for Stephon Gilmore, who is playing like a true #1 corner for Indy.
The Jacksonville OL has done a good job keeping Lawrence upright this season with the 5th-lowest adjusted sack rate, but they have failed to create any push in the running game, ranking 30th in line yards created and 23rd in run-block win rate. The numbers haven’t been pretty for Colts QB Matt Ryan this season (26th in EPA+CPOE) but he was able to lead the team on a game-winning drive in OT against the Broncos, the 44th of his career, one behind Dan Marino for 5th on the all-time list. I think we will continue to see gradual improvement from the Colts offense as Ryan gets more comfortable in Reich’s offense.
Check out our full Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars predictions
Andrew Ortenberg: Atlanta Falcons +5.5 (-110) vs San Francisco 49ers
We’ve got an interesting NFC matchup here as the Atlanta Falcons host the San Francisco 49ers. Not too many people projected the Falcons to be competent, but right now they’re the only team in the league that is still perfect against the spread. And I think they can make it 6-0 ATS for a few reasons. For starters, it’s just a bad spot for the 49ers. They’re coming off a big win over the Panthers and are now playing their second game on the East Coast with an early kickoff in a row. They’re also dealing with a ton of injuries, particularly on defense. Star pass-rusher Nick Bosa went down in the win over Carolina and is highly questionable for this one.
49ers defensive line starters Javon Kinlaw and Arik Armstead also didn’t practice on Wednesday. Starting cornerback Emmanuel Moseley had a pick-6 against Baker Mayfield, but he tore an ACL later in the game. San Francisco could be tired and shorthanded against a Falcons team that’s a lot better than most realize. Atlanta blew a 15-point fourth-quarter lead in Week 1, and had chances to beat the Rams and Bucs late on the road in their other losses. Arthur Smith is cooking up some really fun stuff in the run game, which could have some success with the 49ers’ defensive front being so banged up. The passing game also looks set to get a boost as it appears Kyle Pitts will return from his hamstring injury for this one.
Check out our full Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers predictions
Caleb Wilfinger: Seattle Seahawks +3 (-115) vs Arizona Cardinals
This line feels mispriced to me, and a lot of that might have to do with the lack of respect in the market for this Seahawks team. First and foremost, Seattle’s offense is legit. Even against a good Saints defense on Sunday, the Seahawks were efficient and generated a number of explosive plays in the passing game. Unfortunately, they had some untimely penalties and 3rd-down struggles which derailed their shot at a road victory. The Seahawks have been extremely successful on early downs, thanks in large part to the stellar play of Geno Smith at quarterback. And when this team needs to convert on 3rd down, their success rate is in the top 25 percentile of the league. Simply put, this is a good offense and we have 5 weeks of data to support that.
While this Seattle defense is one of the worst in the league to this point, that shouldn’t matter against an Arizona Cardinals offense that isn’t scaring anyone at the moment. While Arizona should be able to move the ball and generate points, I still wouldn’t be comfortable making the Cardinals favorites in this game considering how dysfunctional the team has looked. Kyler Murray has moments of brilliance, but his inconsistency at the quarterback position is indicative of the entire team’s performance to this point. I expect Arizona’s defense to struggle against a dynamic Seahawks offense, in what could be a barnburner in the Pacific Northwest. I think Seattle wins this one outright at home, so I have no problem taking the 3 points.
Check out our full Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks predictions
Prop Holiday: Travis Kelce over 77.5 receiving yards (-110)
I’m viewing this like a playoff game for both teams. And for that I have to revert back to Kelce’s production against the Bills in playoffs these last two years: 118 yards and 96 yards. Kelce has only hit this in 2 of games this season, but he is still averaging 8 targets per game. The Chiefs have been shown a surprising amount of man coverage this season, but the Bills enter the game still banged up on defense. We can expect the Chiefs to see a lot more zone looks than they have this season, which bodes well for Kelce. He has a team-high 18 targets for 13.6 yards per reception against zone coverage in 2022. The increased amount of man coverage could explain the down numbers we have seen lately from Kelce. I’m on this for 2U and would play up to 79.5
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