Andrew Wilsher
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Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season has arrived, and to say things are going great for the Pickswise NFL handicappers would be an understatement. This year, our experts boast a 42-22-1 record against the spread, which would equate to +32 units if you bet every single one of those at the advised stake! Now, we’ve included the best bet of the week from 4 of our sharpest NFL experts. So that’s 4 NFL Week 5 best bets, all in one place! Let’s dive in and check ’em out.
Read our NFL picks for EVERY Week 5 matchup — we went 13-2-1 on spreads last week!
Jared Smith: Buccaneers -8 over Falcons (-110)
Tom Brady owns the Falcons. Obviously, the 28-3 comeback in Super Bowl LI is the main event, but overall Brady is 9-0 straight up and 8-1 against the spread in his career vs. Atlanta. The only non-cover was a game in 2020 when the Falcons jumped out to a 17-0 halftime lead at home, only to allow Brady and the Bucs to storm back with a 31-10 second half to win by 4, failing to cover a 6-point spread. All of those trends are fun, but the core of his game also presents a matchup problem for Atlanta. For the most part, Tampa’s defense has played well this season, 5th in EPA/play and 8th against the pass, but they haven’t graded out well against the run, which is surprising considering that has historically been the strength of their unit.
The Bucs are getting healthier on offense, and Brady looked a little more in sync with a new cast of characters around him at receiver in garbage time against the Chiefs. Atlanta generates a league-worst 11% pressure rate, so Tom should have plenty of time to pick apart this bottom-feeder defense. Another factor to consider here is the number, which opened with the Bucs -11.5 earlier this summer. I like getting a full field goal discount through a secondary key number after two straight Tampa losses and a misleading Falcons win over the Browns.
Be sure to check out our full Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions
Howard Bender: Cardinals +5.5 (-110) over Eagles
It’s tough to say anyone is playing better football than the Eagles right now. They are undefeated through the first four weeks and are 3-1 against the spread, with the one blemish being that Week 1 win over the Lions where it looked as if they took their foot off the gas and let the Lions creep back in with a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns that were meaningless in the overall outcome. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 2-2 on the season and 2-2 against the spread, with both losses coming at home. We know there is a belief that west coast teams traveling east are at a disadvantage due to time zone changes and internal body clocks being off, but that same belief isn’t usually held for teams traveling in the opposite direction. Still, this feels like a tough spot to take the road team laying points.
Something to keep in mind, when looking at the Cardinals, is that injuries have kept their offensive firepower at less than 100 percent. Running back James Conner has been banged up, the receiving corps has been limited to Marquise Brown and Greg Dortch and the offensive line had lost a few components just before the season opened. Still, they’ve remained competitive and are slowly getting back to full strength. Kyler Murray has done plenty to carry them this far.
On the Eagles side, this is more about their defense holding firm than it is worrying about how the offense performs. We know Jalen Hurts is having an MVP-like start to the season, and we expect them to score. But the defense hasn’t dealt with a quarterback like Murray who can do what he does both on the ground and through the air. The combination may just allow Arizona to keep this game close.
Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals predictions
Prop Holliday: DeVonta Smith over 3.5 receptions (-130)
Smith is the definition of a “boom or bust” player prop guy. He’s hit this in 2 of 4 games this season and gets the best matchup of anyone on the team in Cardinals DB Marco Wilson. Byron Murphy will likely tail AJ Brown around the field like he did Davante Adams in Week 2 (where he locked him up for 2-12 yards). Smith is still 2nd on the team in targets at nearly 23% target share and this game has the potential to be a shootout. With Smith being one of the better route runners in the league, I expect him to find Smith open early and often.
Get the rest of Prop Holliday’s best NFL Week 5 player props
Andrew Ortenberg: Packers -8 over Giants (-110)
The New York Giants will be looking to pull off a big upset of the Green Bay Packers here as they hop across the pond for a London showdown. New York was dealing with some uncertainty under center, but it looks like Daniel Jones is going to give it a go despite dealing with an ankle injury. Jones left the Week 4 win against the Bears after spraining his ankle but returned late in the game after Tyrod Taylor suffered a concussion. He appeared significantly hobbled and almost certainly won’t be 100 percent on Sunday. An immobile Jones could be a big issue since the Giants are already dealing with significant injuries in their receiving corps.
The injury could make the G-Men one dimensional, and if Jones aggravates his ankle then they are in big trouble since Taylor still hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol. The Packers have won 3 straight games and it appears their Week 1 debacle against the Vikings was just a classic early-season fluke. New York might be 3-1, but that record is pretty fraudulent. Those 3 wins came against the Titans, Panthers and Bears — 3 of the worst-looking teams in the league so far. And all 3 of them came in 1-possession games. The defense has played pretty well, but just look at the quarterbacks they have faced the last 3 weeks: Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush and Justin Fields. Needless to say, it’s a big step up going against Aaron Rodgers. I’m laying the points with the Packers.
Be sure to check out our full New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers predictions
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