Andrew Wilsher
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Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season has arrived and we’re almost a quarter of the way through the season already. Through the first 3 weeks we’ve seen tons of wild action, but most importantly, we all have a lot more data to work off of when it comes to our NFL wagering. Through weeks of numbers is more than enough to get a strong read on certain teams and players, and no doubt helps our experts when it comes to making their picks. Here at Pickswise, we’ve had a strong start to the NFL season and we’re currently boasting a 13-5 record on our 3-star NFL best bets. Let’s see if we can keep it rolling this week.
Below, we’ve included the best bet of the week from four of our sharpest NFL experts. So that’s four NFL Week 4 best bets, all in one place! Let’s dive in and check ’em out.
Don’t forget to read our NFL picks for EVERY Week 4 matchup
Jared Smith: Cardinals +1.5 over Panthers (-110)
This is a decent buy-low spot for Arizona, who was favored by 3.5 in the lookahead for this game when the lines opened in June. Since then we’ve seen both teams look poor, especially the Cardinals’ defense and the Panthers’ offense. Baker Mayfield in particular has been really bad, ranking last in success rate, bottom-10 in air yards, and has a completion percentage barely above 50. It’s fair to say he’s currently the most inefficient and inaccurate quarterback in the league.
I believe Arizona’s defense will improve, especially when you consider they are 1st in pass-rush win rate through the first three games of the season. The return of JJ Watt has helped, Zach Allen is also grading out well on the interior and Isaiah Simmons is holding his own on the edge. Both defenses blitz a ton, which means this game could be volatile on both ends, Kyler Murray has performed better against pressure than Baker has so far this season, so Arizona also has an edge in that category. Matt Rhule is just 11-25 as a head coach so far, and 1-25 in games when the defense allows 17 points or more.
Be sure to check out our full Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers predictions
Howard Bender: Chargers -5 over Texans (-110)
The line originally opened up at Chargers -7.5 but quickly dropped to them being favored by just 5 following their Week 3 drubbing at the hands of the Jaguars. With reports that quarterback Justin Herbert will continue to require treatment for his fractured rib cartilage and remaining uncertainty surrounding Keenan Allen’s availability, money continued to come in on Houston. The Texans are at home and Lovie Smith has them playing tough, but will it be enough?
As competitive as the Texans have looked during their first three games, you have to take into account the level of play of their opponents. The Colts looked like a disaster in Week 1 and have been struggling with key injuries on defense. Both the Broncos and Bears are a hot mess on both sides of the ball and Houston failed to beat either team. Smith can get his team pumped up emotionally, but save for a strong Week 3 performance by Dameon Pierce, this offense has struggled to move the ball and score points.
The Chargers’ defense is one of the best in the league and while they crumbled to Jacksonville following the loss of Joey Bosa to a groin injury, they have had ample time to reset the game plan knowing ahead of time that they won’t have their star edge-rusher. On the offensive side, Herbert is another week into the healing process, Allen is expected to return to practice and Austin Ekeler is looking to jump-start his season against a defense that ranks dead-last against the run. Los Angeles is too good to not rebound against Houston.
Be sure to check out our full Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans predictions
Andrew Ortenberg: Raiders -2.5 over Broncos (-115)
The Las Vegas Raiders are the NFL’s only 0-3 team, but they still find themselves as modest favorites for this Week 4 matchup against the Denver Broncos. Despite the fact that they’re 0-3, I’ve got to lay the points with them here. Each of their losses has been by 6 or fewer points, while the Broncos are very lucky to be 2-1. They very nearly lost to the Texans as massive favorites in Week 2, and then only squeaked by the 49ers by 1 point last week in an ugly game. Russell Wilson just isn’t the same QB that he used to be, and his days of being a top-tier signal-caller appear to be long gone. That’s not an overreaction to a few games, it looked that way his last couple of years in Seattle as well.
This is the last stand for the Raiders and I’m expecting them to be fired up. Denver’s passing game has no rhythm right now, and saying first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett looks in over his head would be a dramatic understatement. Things aren’t nearly as bad in Las Vegas as their record suggests, and I’m backing them to get their first W of the season.
Be sure to check out our full Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions
Phil Agius: Giants -3 over Bears (-115)
This is an unlikely meeting of 2-1 teams as both give the impression of having more issues than those winning records suggest. Regardless, one of them should improve to 3-1 on Sunday and the most likely team is the Giants. Chicago’s wins have been over San Francisco in a game played in conditions so bad it gives no real reflection of either team’s ability, and against winless Houston last week in a woeful encounter. The Giants, meanwhile, got things started with a win on the road against Tennessee before securing a home victory against Carolina. They then fell to the Cowboys on Monday night, but the Giants have still shown more than the Bears have.
The Giants offense has averaged 356 yards per game compared to 285.7 from the Bears, and the difference in the passing game is stark. New York’s passing game is at a mediocre 186.7 yards per game but that is still almost double Chicago’s putrid 99 yards per game. Justin Fields’ talent seems to be going to waste in Illinois and he also looks to be regressing with only 2 TD passes and 4 interceptions already this season, despite attempting just 45 passes all season (17-11-17 per game).
The Giants will likely look to their ground game with their pass attack losing Sterling Shepard to injury on Monday, and Saquon Barkley could power them to victory against a rushing defense that has given up 157 yards per game. The Bears have won the teams’ last 3 meetings, but the Giants have covered in 6 of the last 8 and look the right side as home favorites this time.
Be sure to check out our full Chicago Bears vs New York Giants predictions
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