Andrew Wilsher
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We are officially over halfway through the 2022 NFL season, and it’s been an interesting one so far. Very few people would have predicted that the Jets and Seahawks would be 6-3, and even fewer would have predicted that the Super Bowl champion Rams would be 3-5. Despite plenty of upsets, it’s been a great year for the Pickswise NFL handicapping team. We are 76-58-3 on spreads this season, while are NFL Best Bets are an impressive 34-19. Now they’re back for more, so let’s dive into 4 of our best bets for NFL Week 10.
Don’t miss any of our NFL picks for Week 10 — we’re 75-58-3 on spreads this season (+21.2 units!)
Jared Smith: Colts vs Raiders under 42.5 (-110)
The Colts are 8-1 to the under this season and 5-0 on the road, which makes sense if you consider how inept they have been on offense. The QB move from Matt Ryan to Sam Ehlinger has only made things worse, as Indy is dead last in EPA/play on offense over the last 2 weeks. The good news is Jonathan Taylor seems to be trending in a positive direction and could return from an ankle injury. However, the bad news is the Vegas defense is 5th in EPA/rush this season and will likely be loading up the box.
The Raiders’ offense has been arguably the most disappointing unit in the NFL this season. Derek Carr had just a 12% success rate on dropbacks in the 2nd half against the Jags, and Vegas has been blanked in 6 of the last 8 quarters. When you have talented guys like Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, Josh Jacobs and an offensive-minded head coach in Josh McDaniels, those types of droughts simply are not acceptable at the NFL level. If the Raiders’ offense flops again this week, I can see McDaniels as the next coach to receive his walking papers.
Even if Vegas does show some life on offense, it will be tough to sustain against a Colts defense that played outstanding against the Patriots last week. They allowed just a 29% success rate while holding New England’s offense to a negative EPA/play for the game.
Considering their problems on offense, interim HC Jeff Saturday knows his only chance of winning is to shut down the Raiders offense and set up some good field position for Ehlinger with the hope of keeping him in a positive game script while avoiding known passing situations. When Indy does have the ball, expect them to slow things down and keep it on the ground as much as possible.
Be sure to check out our full Indianapolis Colts vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions
Howard Bender: Titans -2.5 over Broncos (-110)
This game actually has some interesting buzz and not because of Derrick Henry or the possibility the Titans get Ryan Tannehill back under center, but because of Russell Wilson. The Titans, with or without Tannehill, are predictable and they will run Henry hard, challenging the defense to stop him. The Broncos are allowing nearly 140 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks and we’ve seen them get stomped by some of the better backs in the league. With Henry leading the way, the onus will fall on Wilson to keep the Broncos in this one.
The Broncos’ rushing attack has been in trouble since the day Javonte Williams tore his ACL and they have barely cracked 100 yards per game on the ground over the past three weeks. That means Wilson is going to have to carry this offense through the air.
Both Denver and Tennessee have played some close games all year, but with a 2.5-point spread favoring the Titans, we have to favor the home team. Tennessee is 6-2 against the spread this season and have covered in each of the last five straight. That’s what happens when you can run the ball effectively. Denver, meanwhile, is 3-5 against the spread this season and struggles against the run. Whether Wilson shines or not, if you can’t stop Henry, you can’t control the game.
Be sure to check out our full Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans predictions
Andrew Ortenberg: Browns +3.5 over Dolphins (-110)
It’s a Jacoby Brissett revenge game as the Cleveland Browns travel south to take on the Miami Dolphins. The Browns are coming off their bye week and will be looking to keep the momentum going from their Week 8 win over the Bengals that snapped a four-game skid. For a few reasons, I think they’ll be able to do so. Miami has struggled to stop the run, and it got so bad last week that Justin Fields set the all-time record for rushing yards by a quarterback against them. As such, I expect Nick Chubb to have a big day here. Chubb has been averaging a ridiculous 5.6 yards per carry this season and has rushed for at least 87 yards in all but one game.
Cleveland’s record might say 3-5, but it could easily be a lot better. Four of their five losses this season have come by three points or fewer, so I feel great about being able to get more than a field goal here. Tua Tagovailoa’s numbers recently look great, but the Dolphins have been playing a ton of weak defenses. Right before this weak stretch in the schedule, the Dolphins had lost three straight. And their defense has mostly looked terrible this season. It also can’t hurt to point out that the Browns have won both times they’ve been coming off their bye with Kevin Stefanski as head coach.
Be sure to check out our full Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins predictions
Ricky Dimon: Bears -2.5 over Lions (-115)
The Detroit Lions will try to engineer their first 2-game winning streak of the season when they visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday afternoon. Make no mistake about it, even though the Lions are coming off a rare victory, it’s not like they have much momentum. Head coach Dan Campbell’s team is 2-6 overall, 1-5 in its last 6 and now it must go back on the road — where it is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS at the halfway point of this 2022 campaign. Detroit’s 2 wins have come at the expense of Washington and Green Bay, who are a combined 4 games under .500.
With Chicago’s offense suddenly in fine form, this does not set up well for a Detroit defense that is dead last in the NFL with room to spare — allowing 417.3 yards per game. It is also last in scoring defense (29.3 ppg) and 2nd-to-last in rushing defense (148.8 ypg), which bodes terribly for their chances of stopping a Bears offense that is #1 in the league in rushing by a country mile (195.4 ypg). Do the Lions have any chance of keeping up? Maybe not. Over the past 4 games, Jared Goff has more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (3). Count on the Bears winning this one, and they will probably do so by considerably more than a field goal.
Be sure to check out our full Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears predictions
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