Andrew Wilsher
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And then there were 4. We’ve got just 3 games left of this NFL season as the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game, which is followed by the San Francisco 49ers battling the Los Angeles Rams for the NFC Championship. The winners of those two games will meet at SoFi Stadium on February 13 to contest Super Bowl LVI.
To enhance the excitement for this weekend’s huge matchups, 4 of Pickswise’s best NFL experts have weighed in with their best bets for Championship Sunday. That’s 4 great picks, all right here! Let’s dive into our experts’ best bets.
Jared Smith: Bengals vs Chiefs Over 54
The total in Bills/Chiefs closed right around 54, so I think that number is appealing in this matchup which features a big drop-off in defensive scheme and skill from Buffalo to Cincinnati. The Bengals’ defense ranks 24th in weighted DVOA, which takes into account recent results, while the Bills rank 3rd. Overall, Buffalo led the NFL in DVOA this season, the Bengals were 19th. Whenever the Bengals offense is on the field, I think it will be difficult for the Chiefs secondary to contain Ja’Marr Chase, who posted an absurd 11/266/3 stat-line in the first matchup.
Keep an eye on Tyrann Mathieu in concussion protocol this week. If he can’t go, I see more value in the over. The Chiefs running game should be more of a factor here than it was in Week 17, when neither Clyde Edwards-Helaire nor Jerick McKinnon played. If the pace slows down, I’m worried about the number of possessions needed to get over this total, which is why this is only a 2-star play.
Be sure to check out Jared’s full preview for Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs
Ross Tucker: 49ers +3.5 (-110)
Kyle Shanahan owns Sean McVay.
Really, at this point, there is no other way to describe it. The 49ers’ head coach has taken down his friend and former colleague’s Rams squad six straight times going back to October of 2019. That includes the most recent victory, a 27-24 comeback in Week 18 that punched the Niners’ ticket for the playoffs that has led them to the NFC Championship game right back in Los Angeles.
Yes, I know at some point this dominance has to end. And yes, it might be Sunday. But if the sportsbooks are going to give me 3.5 points while I take the team that has beaten the other team every time they’ve faced each other for three years I am going to take it.
This Niners group believes they are going to beat the Rams yet again because for most of the players on this team that is all they’ve ever known. Conversely, there has to be some doubt that creeps into the minds of the Rams players, especially if it is a close game late. Give me San Francisco getting the 3.5.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams
Andrew Ortenberg: CJ Uzomah over 3.5 receptions (-155)
I’m going with a prop for my best bet of Championship Sunday. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd understandably get most of the attention, but the Bengals also have a really solid tight end in Uzomah. His role increased down the stretch of the regular season, and he’s been a big part of the offense in the playoffs. In each of Cincy’s first two playoff games, Uzomah has had at least six catches and at least 64 yards. Overall, Uzomah has reached at least four receptions in five of his past six games.
The Chiefs have had some vulnerability against tight ends, and I think most of their defensive attention is going to go toward slowing Chase down after he torched them for 266 yards back in Week 17. That will free up more looks for guys like Uzomah. The crowd noise is going to be absolutely deafening at Arrowhead, and the Bengals will want to make things as simple as possible for Joe Burrow which should mean plenty of quick throws to tight ends.
Andrew Wilsher: Bengals +7 (-110)
I love this Bengals team. For a unit so young and inexperienced, they’ve shown so much maturity to stay cool under pressure, and I’m riding this team to at least push the Chiefs all the way on the AFC’s grandest stage. Earlier this month Cincinnati took on a KC team that had been firing on all cylinders and was in red-hot form, and found a way to come out on top. That was despite the Chiefs holding a 14-point lead for much of the game. This team will do whatever it takes to win and I don’t expect that to wane at Arrowhead on Sunday when they’ve already been in plenty of positions already that failure would’ve been understandable.
Evan McPherson has been as good a rookie kicker as we’ve ever seen, and the rapport between Joe Burrow and receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins has been outstanding. I know that the Bengals are poor against tight ends and that Travis Kelce will likely tear them apart, but even if Patrick Mahomes and the offense has another huge game, I truly believe that Joe Brrrr can keep his team in the mix. Winning the game outright might be a step too far, but based on what I’ve seen over the past month, this Bengals team isn’t afraid of anybody and has the talent to stay within a touchdown.
Read our experts’ debate on whether the NFL should change overtime rules
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