Andrew Wilsher
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Ladies and gentlemen, the NCAA Tournament Final Four has arrived. Even though we’re now in April, we are reaching peak March Madness, with two fantastic games on Saturday evening to get excited for as Villanova takes on Kansas and North Carolina battles Duke. Two teams will advance to Monday’s National Championship game, and two will be eliminated.
To celebrate the big day, we’ve asked four of Pickswise’s best college basketball experts to give their best bet for the two Final Four games. Interestingly, there appears to be some agreement from our experts, with Jared Smith and Jim Root locking in the same play, while Matt Marquart and Sam Avellone are also recommending the same side for UNC vs Duke. Let’s dive in!
Jared Smith: Villanova vs Kansas Under 132.5 (-110)
Villanova plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, and I would expect their offense to be even slower and less efficient without Justin Moore on the floor. Kansas has played surprisingly fierce defense during this run to the Final Four as the Jayhawks are holding opponents to under 40% on 2-pointers and 25.6% on 3-pointers. On the other side, the Jayhawks’ offense has struggled in the tournament, ranking just 30th in Bart Torvik’s adjusted offense and shooting below their season averages from both 2-point and 3-point range.
The only path to victory for Villanova without Moore is to muck up the game, and I trust Jay Wright to push the right buttons and make the most of his thin rotation. Another factor to consider is lines of sight. Similar to what we saw at the ‘Frisco Disco’ for the Conference USA Tournament, this game is being played at the cavernous Caesars Superdome, so jump-shooting could be a bit erratic. Nerves should also play a factor, especially early, which is why I’ll also be making a play on the 1st half under.
Check out Jared Smith’s NCAA Tournament analysis and Final Four best bets
Jim Root: Villanova vs Kansas Under 132.5 (-110)
Somehow, a game between the storied Kansas Jayhawks and Villanova, the winner of 2 of the last 5 national titles, is the Final Four undercard. And let me tell you – I do think it is the UNDER card (I’m sorry for that pun).
Villanova has been an under machine in the postseason. In 7 tournament games (3 Big East, 4 NCAA), only the Delaware blowout went over the full game total. The Wildcats have leaned strongly into their half-court, execution-based identity, forcing foes into the mud with them while keeping them out of transition.
That is exacerbated by the loss of Justin Moore. The Wildcats’ already-thin rotation is now down to 5 players (plus any scrap minutes Chris Arcidiacono and Bryan Antoine can provide). Fatigue and foul trouble loom large, increasing the value of a grinding pace for a team that is already inclined to play that way.
Villanova’s fastest postseason games were 64 possessions against St. John’s, which was the Red Storm’s slowest game since February 5, and 62 possessions against Michigan, which was the Wolverines’ slowest game since February 12. They have a clear ability to control the tempo, and they have a glaring incentive to do so in this game, as well.
For their part, the Jayhawks have been sharp defensively lately. In each of their past 2 games, they held their opponent below 20 points in a half — 17 in the first half against Providence, 15 in the second half against Miami. Go with the under in this one.
Matt Marquart: Duke -4 (-110) over North Carolina
Duke is the recommended side to bet in this matchup, as their offense is firing on all cylinders during the NCAA Tournament. Per KenPom, Duke now ranks first in adjusted offensive efficiency, having scored at least 1.11 points per possession in each of their four NCAA Tournament games. It’s not as if their offense has not been tested either, as their last two opponents, Texas Tech and Arkansas, ranked first and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
What makes Duke’s offense so hard to stop is the fact that they are extremely balanced in terms of scoring. The Blue Devils have had 5 players in double-figures in scoring in 3 of the 4 tournament games. In the 1 game they did not achieve this feat, their 5th and 6th-leading scorers finished with 9 points each.
Duke doesn’t need to be a dominant defensive team given how strong their offense is, but if they can simply be adequate on that end, they should be able to cover this spread.
Make sure you don’t miss Matt’s Final Four parlay (+623 odds!)
Sam Avellone: Duke -4 (-110) over North Carolina
It has been an impressive run for the Tar Heels, who are 10-1 straight up since a loss to Pittsburgh on February 16. North Carolina has had an elite offense all season, but the Tar Heels have found another level defensively, holding opponents to 66 points per game in the NCAA Tournament, including the 86 points surrendered to Baylor in overtime.
Duke’s offense has been very good since the beginning of February and has shown no signs of slowing down in the tournament despite facing some of the best defenses in college basketball in Arkansas and Texas Tech. Over their last 5 games, the Blue Devils are averaging 77.2 ppg on 53% shooting from the field and have been led by Paolo Banchero’s efficient and smart play. The future lottery pick is making a case as the #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft this summer, as he has put up 18.5 ppg, 7 rpg, and 3.8 apg in the Big Dance and often looks unstoppable with the ball in his hands.
The Blue Devils are going to be the most motivated a team can be on Saturday, as they match up their in-state rival in the Final Four in a revenge spot after the Tar Heels embarrassed them in Coach K’s final home game. I trust the Duke offense more in this spot, so I recommend laying the points with the Blue Devils.
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