Andrew Wilsher
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The first 2 rounds of the NCAA Tournament have been and gone, and it truly has lived up to the March Madness billing. We’ve had some notable upsets, some unlikely teams reaching the Sweet 16, and some thrilling matchups go right down to the wire. But now, with 52 teams dismissed and just 16 remaining, who has been the most impressive so far? Has there been a top contender that looks like a champion-elect, or has there been an under-the-radar team that could continue riding the momentum to the Final Four and beyond? We’ve asked some of Pickswise’s best college basketball experts for the team they have been most impressed by and any futures opportunities that have opened up as a result. Let’s dive in!
Jared Smith: Houston Cougars
NCAA Tournament winner odds: +850
Final Four odds: +200
Remember the Cougars? They made a run to the Final Four last year, and they look poised to return in 2022. Houston is underseeded at #5, so they get the unenviable task of having to face the 1-seed Arizona in the Sweet 16, and not the Elite 8. However, they do have the advantage of playing both games in their backyard (San Antonio).
Coming into the tournament, Houston had the efficiency grades necessary on offense and defense to string together 6 straight wins and cut down the nets. They’ve shown that balance so far, scoring 82 points against UAB in an up-and-down opening game, then grinding out a low-scoring affair against Illinois, forcing 17 turnovers and holding the Fighting Illini to just 53 points in the second round.
Kelvin Sampson is an elite coach and they have an experienced backcourt led by senior transfer Kyler Edwards, who also played in the Final Four as a freshman with Texas Tech. Senior big Fabian White and sophomore guard Jamal Shead are holdovers from Houston’s tourney run last year. I’ve also been impressed with UConn transfer Josh Carlton and Cal State Bakersfield transfer Taze Moore, who have all made big impacts. The Cougars certainly check all the boxes and are worth a bet at their current price.
Matt Marquart: Miami Hurricanes
NCAA Tournament winner odds: +7000
Final Four odds: +500
Miami is the team that has impressed me the most after the first weekend of March Madness. I actually bet against the Hurricanes in the first round against USC, thinking that the Trojans’ size would prove to be too much. What I did not consider enough is how their offense would be an extremely difficult matchup for not only USC, but Auburn as well. Miami’s five-out offense with sharpshooting center Sam Waardenburg forced USC and Auburn’s big-men to guard on the perimeter, which negated their respective interior defenses. USC and Auburn both rank in the top-10 of two-point percentage defense, but having Waardenburg play on the perimeter opened up driving lanes for Charlie Moore, Isaiah Wong and Kameron McGusty. I don’t think that the Hurricanes will win it all, but Miami to reach the Final Four at +500 catches my attention after the first two rounds.
Make sure you don’t miss Matt’s Sweet 16 mega parlay (+1260 odds!)
Sam Avellone: Houston Cougars
NCAA Tournament winner odds: +850
Final Four odds: +200
Houston is one of the teams that has impressed me the most after the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars have won each of their postseason games (AAC and NCAA Tournament) by double digits and look to have found their form defensively. They beat a popular upset pick in UAB in the Round of 64 before taking care of business against Illinois in the Round of 32. The Cougars played aggressive defense and crashed the offensive glass against Illinois, which are keys to their success moving forward.
As a #5 seed, Houston is extremely underseeded. The Cougars are the #2 team in KenPom’s rankings currently and have one of the game’s best coaches in Kelvin Sampson — who now knows what it takes to get to the Final Four. If Houston can keep successfully crashing the offensive glass without leaving itself vulnerable to fast-break points in addition to playing defense at a high level, the Cougars have a great shot to make it back to the Final Four for the second consecutive year.
Find out our best underdogs to target across the March Madness Sweet 16 games
Ricky Dimon: North Carolina Tar Heels
NCAA Tournament winner odds: +3200
Final Four odds: +370
North Carolina beating Baylor to reach the Sweet 16 is one of the few bright spots in my bracket. So I’m not surprised at all that it happened. But I definitely did not think that the Tar Heels would rout Marquette by 32 points or lead Baylor by 25 in the second half. Sure, a temporary collapse ultimately led to overtime against the Bears, but keep in mind that Brady Manek got ejected with 10 minutes left (on a terrible call) and Caleb Love fouled out with 6 minutes left. Those weren’t the real Tar Heels over the final 10 minutes. That they somehow bounced back to dominate in OT is more impressive than the collapse in regulation is alarming.
In addition to #1 Baylor, #2 Kentucky is also gone from the East Region. The door is wide open for UNC, which has gotten hot at the right time to the tune of a 14-3 record in its last 17 games. I like the Heels to reach the Final Four at +370, but I love the value on going bigger and getting them at +3200 to win it all.
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