Andrew Wilsher
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Ladies and gentlemen, let the madness begin! After a wild college basketball season, the NCAA Tournament has arrived as 68 teams dream of being the last one standing in the championship game on April 4. Gonzaga is the +300 favorite to go one better after losing to Baylor last time, but face stiff competition in the betting from the likes of Arizona, Kentucky and Kansas. Which team will it be that is cutting down the nets on April 4? We’ve asked some of Pickswise’s best college basketball experts for their picks to win the NCAA Tournament to help you with your futures wagers, and to help fill out your bracket. Let’s dive in!
Jared Smith: Kansas Jayhawks +850
Based on certain criteria drawn from past tournaments that I detailed in my NCAA Tournament preview, there are 6 teams that are a perfect match for title contention: Gonzaga, UCLA, Baylor, Arizona, Auburn, and Tennessee. Where is Kansas? Well, if you widen the criteria from top 25 adjusted defenses to top 30 then Kansas, Kentucky, Villanova, and Illinois would also be a match.
I have Texas Tech, Kentucky, Arizona, and Kansas in my Final Four, with Kansas beating Kentucky in the championship. The Jayhawks looked fantastic at the Big 12 Tournament last week and I think the return of Remy Martin is a big reason why. Guard play is huge in March and if Martin back at a high level I they have the deepest backcourt in the country with All-American Ochai Agbaji leading the way. They also have experience and size up front. I don’t fully trust Bill Self, but the talent wins out for me here.
Matt Marquart: Kentucky Wildcats +850
I am going to go with Kentucky at +850 to win the National Championship. The Wildcats rank fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency, making them a balanced team. The thing that swayed me to Kentucky is their potential path. The Wildcats could get Purdue in the Sweet 16, and I think they match up well. They have the size to battle with Trevion Williams and Zach Edey and I think Kentucky has the athleticism to take advantage of a shaky Purdue perimeter defense. The Wildcats are also in the region with the weakest #1 seed in Baylor, as the Bears have been decimated by injuries to LJ Cryer and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua.
Sam Avellone: Auburn Tigers +1600
I may be a bit biased because I took the Tigers at 40/1 around Christmas, but the talent on this Auburn team is undeniable. The Tigers have had a top-10 defense paired with a top 25 offense led by Jabari Smith – who is arguably the best shot-maker in the country with an unguardable skillset. Defensively, the Tigers are anchored by Walker Kessler, who has the highest block rate in the country (18.9%). The inconsistent play from the guard position and the inability to make shots away from home is alarming, but I believe the start of the postseason will be a nice “reset” for this bunch. Auburn has the size to matchup with some of the top teams in the country and coach Bruce Pearl took the Tigers to the Final Four in 2019 with an inferior team compared to this one.
Ricky Dimon: Arizona Wildcats +650
Last season Gonzaga was the second-best team on paper and finished second, losing to Baylor in the championship game. This time around Gonzaga is the best team on paper. So will it finally finish first? There is definitely a good chance, but the oddsmakers think it’s too good of a chance. There is no way I am taking the Zags when I can get Arizona at more than twice as big of a payout (+300 and +650, respectively, at DraftKings).
Arizona (31-3) has an even better record than Gonzaga (25-3) even though the Wildcats are more battle-tested. Sure the Bulldogs play a tough non-conference schedule, but going from West Coast Conference play straight into the NCAA Tournament has often given them problems in the past. There are no such issues for ‘Zona, which just rolled through the Pac-12 with regular-season and tournament titles. The Wildcats have plenty of depth (9 guys log at least 13.6 minutes per game) and 4 players are scoring in double-figures—led by Bennedict Mathurin at 17.5 ppg. Arizona also arguably finds itself in the easiest region (South) and in the easiest half of the bracket. For those reasons, I’m backing the ‘Cats.
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