Andrew Ortenberg
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These are dark times for sports fans, but fortunately we’ve got NFL futures to distract us and to bet on. Oddsmakers have opened 2020 win totals for the first time, and today we’ll be breaking down every team in the NFC South. For the previous installments of this series where we go division by division, check out our ‘NFL news‘ tab.
Saints – O/U 10 wins
The Saints won the NFC South last year and have the highest win total in the group, although not by much. The Saints won 13 games last year and have made some impressive moves this offseason, so this total seems a bit short even with the Buccaneers taking a big step forward in the division. New Orleans struggled for consistent second options behind Michael Thomas last year, but they addressed that by signing Emmanuel Sanders to be their new number two. They also signed Malcolm Jenkins to bolster the secondary, and already have one of the most talented defensive fronts in the league. The acquisition of those two seasoned vets show they’re going all in on one last ride with Drew Brees, and there’s no reason to expect them to regress so sharply from last season.
The pick: Over.
Buccaneers – O/U 9.5 wins
The Bucs are obviously the talk of the league right now due to their signing of Tom Brady. I’m not all that high on Brady, but even if you think he’s over the hill there is still a ton to like about this team. The defense quietly played a lot better down the stretch under Todd Bowles, and they had one of the best run-stuffing units in the league with Ndamukong Suh clogging things up in the middle. Their young secondary should take a step forward, and obviously they have one of the most talented groups of skill position players led by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Bruce Arians is still one of the best offensive minds in football, and this isn’t too high of a bar to clear.
The pick: Over.
Falcons – O/U 7.5 wins
The Falcons have been a big disappointment two years in a row, and coach Dan Quinn was almost fired last season before some wins down the stretch saved his job. That might be a bad thing for the team, since I don’t think Quinn is the coach of the future. He’s entering this campaign on the absolute thinnest of ice, which will be a distraction all year long. They had one of the best tight ends in the game in Austin Hooper, but he walked to join the Browns. They didn’t really address many of their huge question marks on defense, and they were pretty quiet in free agency outside of adding Todd Gurley, a way-past-his-peak running back. I’m not sure how they’re going to generate any semblance of a pass-rush, and now the division is a lot tougher with the Bucs’ emergence.
The pick: Under.
Panthers – O/U 5.5 wins
I’m not too high on the Panthers’ NFC South chances in 2020. They’re essentially entering a rebuild, tearing everything down after firing coach Ron Rivera. They swapped out Cam Newton for Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, despite the fact that Bridgewater has only started six games since the 2015 season. Bridgewater wasn’t asked to do too much while filling in for an injured Brees last year, mostly just throwing checkdowns and short passes. The heart and soul of their team retired in linebacker Luke Keuchly and they lost top cornerback James Bradberry in free agency, so I’m expecting the defense to take a big step back. Things could get pretty ugly.
The pick: Under.
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