Caleb Wilfinger
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The last few weeks have been eye-opening for Dallas Cowboys backers, as the ‘Boys struggled mightily with the Texans before dropping a game to the Jaguars last Sunday after blowing a 17-point lead. On the other side, the Eagles are absolutely rolling en route to the top seed in the NFC. However, Philadelphia is now dealing with an injury to Jalen Hurts, who was ruled out for this week’s NFC East matchup earlier in the week. The line has now flipped, making the cowboys a favorite of over a field goal at home.
Here are our predictions and best bets for Saturday’s Eagles-Cowboys showdown.
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Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys spread, odds & betting lines
Point Spread: Eagles +4, Cowboys -4
Total Points Over/Under: 47 points
Money Line Odds: Eagles +185, Cowboys -215
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Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys expert picks
We have 2 NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Eagles and Cowboys. Let’s take a look.
Eagles vs Cowboys point spread pick: Cowboys -4 (-110)
Early in the week, news leaked out about the injury to Jalen Hurts which will most likely keep him sidelined this week. Considering Hurts is worth about 5-6 points on the line compared to backup Gardner Minshew, this line could still fluctuate considerably between whenever you’re reading this and whenever Philly announces who is starting under center. My guess is at the current price of 4, it’s half banking in Minshew under center. If Hurts makes a miraculous return, then this line likely pushes through 3 and maybe gets back down to the original number of 1.5. If Minshew starts, my guess is we close around 6. So before you bet this game at whatever time you’re reading this, you need to first ask yourself what you’re willing to risk with an unsure QB situation.
Full disclosure, I got in at Cowboys -3, and at that price, I would make this a 2-star play regardless of who is under center for Philly. At 4, it becomes a less valuable play, but if you are of my belief that it will be Minshew starting this week, then you should still feel comfortable betting Dallas at the price. While the QB situation for Philly matters, I still believe this game will be won in the trenches, as most are, especially between division rivals. Both of these teams feature 2 of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and both defenses are top 10 in DVOA. However, Philly has struggled a bit against the run this season, at least more so than Dallas. The Cowboys defense is 10th in rush DVOA, while the Eagles are 20th in that category. Just that edge alone is enough for me to side with Dallas here considering how strong their ground game has been with both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot. My biggest concern here is Dak Prescott’s efficiency, which has taken a dip, throwing 7 picks in the last 4 games. It could be even more important this week against a ball-hawking Philly secondary. If the Cowboys can clean things up on offense and do a good job applying pressure to whoever is under center for the Eagles, I think they win this game comfortably by at least a touchdown.
Be sure to check out our full Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys predictions
Eagles vs Cowboys over/under totals pick: Over 47 (-110)
This total has bounced around all over the place this week, going from 46 to 51.5 peak-to-trough. Since Dak has returned to the lineup, the Cowboys have scored no fewer than 24 points, and have cracked the 40-point mark 3 times in 8 games. The interceptions have been a problem, but I have very little doubt that Dallas will move the ball effectively in this game. Besides the dynamic duo of Josh Sweat and Haason Reddick, Philly’s defensive line is grading out below average. I think the Cowboys will establish tempo early in this game with their own dynamic duo of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot on the ground. Once the Eagles are forced to commit more in the box, that’s when Dak will have some success through the air. Gardner Minshew’s numbers were pretty decent in relief of Jalen Hurts last season with a +3.2 CPOE, 4 TDs, and just 1 INT.
The Cowboys pass rush is prominent, but he has one of the best WR combos in the NFL at his disposal and weapons at RB and TE. The Dallas secondary has been vulnerable this season and are licking their wounds a bit after last week’s comeback by Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. I don’t think this game will be a track meet, but if the market is even slightly undervaluing Minshew, we are getting a good number here. The Cowboys have the best red zone DVOA in the NFL this season, so converting field goals to touchdowns will be key, as always the case, with this game going over the total. I think Minshew will play slightly better than expected, but the floor is still significantly lower than Jalen Hurts, so tread lightly with this bet.
Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and Best Bets from the rest of the Week 16 action.
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