Matt Wiesenfeld
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Best Bet – Philadelphia Eagles to win NFC East (+110)
Worst Bet – Philadelphia Eagles to qualify for the playoffs (-210)
I think I am not as hot on Philadelphia as others are heading into the 2019 season. Sure they are going to be good, maybe really good, but I have a lot of questions even though it seems like all of their moves have improved the club overall. The big thing is that I am not totally sold on QB Carson Wentz and the defense last year was nowhere near as good as it was when they won the Super Bowl the year before. I do not see that unit getting back to an elite level.
This offseason the Eagles invested heavily in Wentz and said goodbye to all-time backup QB Nick Foles. When healthy Wentz has proven that he can be a difference making talent but he has also missed big chunks of time due to injury throughout his career. He has been given more weapons to play with this season with WR DeSean Jackson coming back to Philly and running backs Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders being added. Jackson still has the speed to take the top off the defense but there are not going to be a ton of balls coming his way with WR Alshon Jeffery, WR Nelson Agholor and TE Zach Ertz to feed as well. Ertz caught 116 passes last season and might be the best TE in the league. I worry that Jackson may be more trouble than he is worth if he is not getting the ball as often as he would like. The offensive line should be very good once again, though they are not a young group.
Though the story of Foles replacing Wentz and beating the Patriots was a great narrative, what got lost is that the Philly defense was really good in that Super Bowl winning season – they were 4th in points allowed. Last year they were 12th, which is still good but they were last in the NFC and 30th in the league overall against the pass. That is going to have to improve significantly but with essentially the same group of players, which is a hard thing to pull off. They made some additions to the defensive line but the secondary is intact save Andrew Sendejo, a third safety who came over from the Vikings. The Eagles had only 10 interceptions a year ago and a negative turnover differential as a result. With the way that teams throw nowadays, they have to be better against the pass and I don’t think they are.
Eagles Win Total: O/U 10.0
Philly has a great schedule to get off to a strong start. They do not face a team that had a winning record last year until mid October when they visit Minnesota, who barely qualifies at 8-7-1. They should start 3-0 and 4-0 with a win at Green Bay is very doable (I am not sold on the Packers). The schedule stiffens in the middle but four of their last five are against teams that missed the playoffs last year so there is a great chance to finish strong too. The Dallas home game in the second to last week of the season looks like the swing game in terms of this total and possibly the division. I am not sure they are going to be better than the Cowboys this season so look to hit that under.
Recommendation: Go under. Since the number is flat there are going to be a lot of pushes though.
Odds to make the playoffs -210
That price shows that this is more likely than not. I agree with that opinion. Dallas and Philly are really close in terms of division odds and there is no reason they both can’t make it like they did last season. While the probability here is high it is no sure thing and I don’t like tying up my money for that long for such a small payoff. It’s not that I don’t like the bet it just isn’t worth it. Recommendation: Pass
Odds to win NFC East +110
This one is a bit of a coin flip with the Cowboys and it might depend on who is playing well during their respective stretches of the schedule. I think Philly has the edge there. Just one example is that both teams play Chicago and New England but the Eagles get those teams at home, Dallas on the road. The differences between a first place schedule and a second place one really shape the race this season. I think they are just enough to give Philly the edge and you don’t pay a huge premium for it. Recommendation: Jump on this one!
Odds to win NFC Conference +900
Attached to the above this team gets interesting if they can win the division and get some home playoff games. Then the weather could be a factor against pretty much anyone other than Chicago or Green Bay and they have lots of experience too. That price is more than worth it in terms of tying up your money for a while, if you like this group. I like them to win the division so I will sprinkle some on this one also. If you don’t and see them as a Wild Card team then take a pass here. Winning on the road in the playoffs is tough. Recommendation: Put a small play down here.
Odds to win Super Bowl 54 +1600
You shouldn’t necessarily think of it this way if you are a true analytics sort, but is Philly a dynasty, or mini dynasty? Are they going to be a team that wins titles in two of three seasons and with different starting quarterbacks in those huge games no less? That is pretty heady stuff and given that is almost never happens I am not going to put my money on it. I do see Philly as a legitimate contender – see above – but I am not high on them as a champion this season. I can see the path but don’t like the probability. The answers to those rhetoricals are a no for me. Recommendation: Not quite the favorite and not quite a sleeper. There are better options for this one.
