Ryan Hodges
Entering the playoffs, the battle of Florida looked like it was going to be the best series of the opening round of the 2024-25 postseason. After a very lopsided Game 1, there have been plenty of questions. Although the Lightning won consecutive Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, the Panthers were the team that showed why they made consecutive Stanley Cup Finals appearances in 2023 and 2024, obviously having won the Cup in 2024. This is a very heavyweight series between two experienced, proven teams. Every game will be a grind and makes for excellent entertainment for fans. If you will be watching and want to have some skin in the game, here is a same-game parlay worth considering. You can also get our expert NHL picks for today’s postseason action.
Lightning ML (-122)
Over 5.5 (-115)
Jake Guentzel anytime goalscorer (+180)
Panthers vs Lightning Same Game Parlay odds: +470
If you want the best odds on our Panthers vs Lightning Same Game Parlay picks, we recommend using Caesars Sportsbook. No Caesars account? No problem! You can click here to sign up now and if your first $1 wager is a winner, you’ll also receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY!
Lightning ML (-122)
The result of Game 1 was surprising for a few reasons. Primarily, there is not much separating these teams. So, a 4-goal win was not expected. Beyond that, the Lightning have plain been the better team in the last third or so of the regular season. The last thing Tampa wants to do is head back to Sunrise and face Florida in their home barn with a 2-0 series lead. In addition to just plain being a very good team in better long term form in the last couple months, the Lightning have the intangibles of home-ice advantage and added urgency to even the series before going on the road.
The Lightning were 29-9-4 at home this season which was good for 4th best in the league in terms of home point percentage. They also scored the second most goals per game among home teams, and allowed the second-fewest goals per game among home teams. The Panthers were good on the road this year, but not great. Florida had a 21-19-2 road record which was not helped down the stretch as they have won 1 out of their last 7 games on the road. With a razor thin margin of error between these teams, it is difficult to see the Lightning starting this series in an 0-2 hole. They are a great team in better recent form that will have added urgency. Tampa looks to be the more reliable play.
Read our full Panthers vs Lightning prediction for Game 2 tonight
Over 5.5 (-115)
Tuesday’s Game 1 final of 6-2 made it the 6th game total over in Tampa’s last 7 games, as well as their 8th consecutive game total over in games played at home. Head to head, that is also the 5th over in the last 6 played in Tampa. When the Panthers and Lightning meet, totals typically climb. That trend is not very surprising considering the offensive talent on both sides of this matchup. This matchup features 11 different 20+ goal scorers and 7 different point+ per game players. Any game featuring that much offensive talent will always give the game total over plenty of appeal.
What reinforces the appeal to the over in addition to the pure matchup and recent trends is the volatility both teams have experienced lately. The Panthers have now scored or allowed 4+ goals in 4 out of their last 5 games. They are 3-2 over that span, so it has not mattered whether Florida wins or loses, their game totals have been on the high side. There is a similar volatility trend for the Lightning. They have scored or allowed 4+ goals now in 7 consecutive games. If these teams hold to their recent averages of goals either scored or allowed, the over has a great look.
Jake Guentzel anytime goalscorer (+180)
Rightfully so, there were questions entering this season about the Lightning organization decision to not sign long-time Captain Steven Stamkos. Instead, they pivoted to Jake Guentzel. Guentzel would prove that organization decision correct. Guentzel finished the regular season with 41 goals and 80 points in 80 games played. That goal total was the highest of his career and the 3rd 40-goal season of his 9 years in the league. This is a guy who seems to be getting better with age and thrives in big moments.
In addition to a phenomenal regular season and impressive career in general, Guentzel’s postseason track record give this prop even more appeal. He has tallied 39 goals and 68 points in 70 career playoff games, along with a +6 rating, an average ice-time of 19:06 per game, and 8 game-winning goals. Of course, those statistics are complemented by the all-coveted Stanley Cup that Guentzel won in 2017. This is a phenomenal player with a great playoff track record. He is playing on a fantastic line and power play, and will be playing in a game that is almost a must-win. These +180 odds are a nice addition to this same-game parlay.
