Caleb Wilfinger
The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks will play a critical Game 4 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series on Sunday night in Milwaukee. Home teams have been on a roll so far in this series, with the Pacers taking the first 2 games in convincing fashion in Indianapolis before the Bucks bounced back with a blowout victory on Friday.
With the series ramping up for its most important game thus far, here is my Same Game Parlay for the action, which tips off at 9:30 pm ET on TNT. Also be sure to check out all of our NBA predictions.
Over 226 (-110)
Damian Lillard Under 19.5 points (-105)
Gary Trent Jr. Over 2.5 made threes (-122)
Parlay odds: +485
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that your odds don’t need to be correlated, if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Bucks guard Damian Lillard going under his points prop does work well with the game going over the total. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Over 226 (-110)
Only one game in this series has exceeded this total, but that Game 2 showdown back in Indianapolis sailed over this mark with a combined 238 total points. While the other games in this series went under this number, the winning side in each game has put up at least 117 points on all 3 occasions. Even when we take a look back on the regular-season head-to-head meetings between these teams, the listed point totals were ranged from 229 on the low end, to as high as 246 on the high end. The Bucks’ offense struggled mightily in the first 2 games, but the role players on the Bucks generally shot a lot better in Milwaukee. That will likely continue in Game 4, and Indiana’s role players should bounce back a bit following a poor effort on Friday. High-scoring affairs are often common between these teams, and I’m expecting another shootout in Sunday’s contest.
Damian Lillard Under 19.5 points (-105)
After missing more than a month due to blood clotting issues, Damian Lillard returned to the Bucks lineup in Game 2 in hopes of boosting Milwaukee’s chances of winning this series. However, the future Hall of Fame point guard has not been able to throw the ball in the ocean through 2 appearances over the past 2 games, shooting just 6-for-25 from the floor and 3-for-16 from beyond the arc. While most would expect Lillard to regress to the mean from a shooting perspective, there is something to be said for the fact that Lillard is clearly still adjusting to game shape, especially with the intensity of a playoff game compared to what he saw in the regular season. If he’s still missing shots and unable to make an impact on the defensive end, I’d expect Lillard to see fewer minutes on Sunday, making this prop an attractive option for our SGP.
Gary Trent Jr. Over 2.5 made threes (-130)
To round out our Same Game Parlay, I’m going to back Gary Trent to exceed his 3-point prop. Trent has stepped up in a big way for Milwaukee in 2 of the 3 games in this series, particularly in Game 3, where he knocked down 9 threes and finished with a whopping 37 points to help the Bucks pick up a victory. And while we can’t expect Trent Jr. to replicate that effort on Sunday, he’s undoubtedly going to get up plenty of shots from deep, seeing as he’s attempted 22 threes over the first 3 games. As long as this number is still sitting at 2.5, I’ll back Trent Jr. to exceed this prop for the second straight game.
