Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Every year on Super Wild Card Weekend we get at least one upset that shocks people. For me, that’s the Commanders (+3) over the Buccaneers on Sunday night. The first game of Daniels’ career was in Tampa, where the Commanders fell 37-20 — but the Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign began that day.
Since then, the Commanders raffled off a 12-4 record in their last 16 games and nearly won the NFC East. The Buccaneers are championed by QB Baker Mayfield, having the best season of his career despite a revolving door of skill position players outside of Mike Evans. Both offenses boast the potential to be explosive with pedestrian defenses, but I like the HC/QB combo of Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels over Todd Bowles/Baker Mayfield as they are the team playing ahead of schedule and — ultimately — nothing to lose in Daniels’ rookie year (similar to the Texans’ victory over the Browns last year).
Jayden Daniels (WAS) Over 8.5 rush attempts (-115)
Line is available at Bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing
This is one of the games I have circled for upset this weekend with the Commanders getting 3 points on Sunday night. Daniels’ median rush attempts on the season is a perfect 8.5, so there is no edge on the number itself. I did notice that he rushed 16 times (season high) against Tampa Bay and I think that’s tied to the Bucs’ blitz rate (3rd highest in the league). When blitzed this season, Daniels has a league-high 27 scramble attempts (9 more than second place). A lot has changed since that Week 1 matchup, but blitzing a rookie QB in his first playoff game seems like a solid plan for Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles. In the event Washington pulls off this upset, Daniels hit this mark in 6 of 12 regular-season wins and kneel-downs do count as rush attempts. 1u.
