Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Thursday Night Football in Week 3, on paper, seems like it’s going to be ugly. We remember last season when the short-week games often were uneventful and lopsided. On Thursday, the New York Giants (+10.5) are heading to San Francisco to take on the 2-0 49ers. Last week, the Giants squeaked out a road victory against the Arizona Cardinals and lost Saquon Barkley in the process. He should be out the next few weeks with a sprained ankle and Matt Breida (former 49er) will take his place. The 49ers could be without Brandon Aiyuk, who injured his shoulder last week against the LA Rams — something to monitor throughout the coming days.
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Daniel Jones (NYG) over 35.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Jones is averaging 51 ypg through 2 games this season and 44.3 last season with the addition of HC Brian Daboll. His 102 yards on the ground lead all QB’s through 2 weeks and this matchup lends itself to Jones being active once again in the run game. Barkley being out may require Daboll to draw up a few more planned runs for Jones. At a career average of 5.8 ypc, Jones will need roughly 6 carries to hit this mark, which he did in 14/19 games last season. The combination of the 49ers pass rush and potentially playing from behind (+10.5 spread) lead me to believe Jones could see 8-10 carries Thursday night. He’s cleared this with ease in both games this season, averaging 11 carries in that span. 1U
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Deebo Samuel (SF) over 4.5 receptions (-120)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Aiyuk’s status is one to monitor this week, but with or without him in the lineup, this is a solid line for Samuel. Deebo is averaging 8 targets and 5 receptions per game through 2 weeks and Aiyuk’s potential absence would likely vault this line to 5.5. In Weeks 1-2, Deebo is sitting at a 29% target share and Brock Purdy’s pass attempt line is sitting at 29.5, projecting Deebo at 8.5 targets and 5.7 receptions. I like Samuel to take advantage of these rookie cornerbacks in primetime. If the juice rises past -130, you can pivot to Deebo over 73.5 rush+receiving yards as an alternative. 1U
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