Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We are gifted a playoff game to close out the regular season, and it is a dandy. The Detroit Lions (-2.5) and Minnesota Vikings square off on Sunday Night Football to decide the winner of the NFC North and the #1 seed in the NFC. The winner will receive a first round bye while the loser will be a 14 win team that heads out on the road for Wild Card weekend. The Lions won the first matchup in Week 5 31-29, but a lot has changed since then; the Lions have been riddled with injuries and Sam Darnold has convinced many of us that he is a top QB in the NFC. The total is set at an astounding 56.5, which should produce fireworks in terms of player props! Let’s get into my best bet for this game.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) over 6.5 receptions (-135)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
With this being the equivalent of an indoor playoff game, I have no reservations playing this number at 6.5 with the juice to the over. Vikings Head Coach Kevin O’Connell will want the ball in the hands of his best playmaker and the Lions are a great matchup for Jefferson to exploit. They allow the 2nd-most receptions to opposing wide receivers on the season (Minnesota gives up the most) and Jefferson cleared this in 8 of 16 games on the season, including 5 straight contests. Against the Lions in Week 5 he went for 8 targets and receptions for 81 yards. Jefferson’s yardage line is set at 92.5 up to 95.5 depending on the book and it’s too high for me to feel comfortable touching. However, when he’s had 92+ receiving yards this season, he’s gone for 7+ in 6 of his last 8 games played. This feels like the safer approach to Jefferson when you factor in the first reads and screens he could see to get him the ball in space. This is a 1u play for me.
