Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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NFL Sunday Night Football features an AFC East showdown between the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots (+3). Tua is a perfect 4-0 against the Patriots as a starter and oddsmakers have installed him as a serious contender for the NFL MVP award this season. The Patriots are coming off a Week 1 loss to the Eagles, but early returns on Bill O’Brien as OC are promising. Personally, I actually expect the Patriots to pull off the upset and lean taking the points as a home divisional underdog, but you can head over to our NFL predictions page for our expert picks on the side and total. for now, let’s look at NFL player props.
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Raheem Mostert over 9.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.
Mostert is not known for his receiving prowess, but still managed 13 receiving yards on 2 catches in Week 1. Belichick is known for eliminating your best weapon and making you find success in other areas. For the Dolphins, that’s Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. While I don’t think either of those guys will be shut down, I believe Tua will be forced to check down a little more than normal. Mostert played 73% of the snaps in Week 1 and averages 14.4 receiving yards per game over the last 4 seasons. Against New England in 2022, he hit this line in both games, including his best receiving performance to date, 8 receptions for 62 yards. I’m going with 1.5 units on this one.
Check out our full Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots predictions
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Mac Jones under 243.5 passing yards (-110)
Line available on Bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.
Last week, Jones was forced to play from behind and go a little more pass-heavy than I think the Patriots would have wanted. Miami allowed a league-worst 17 rushing first downs in Week 1 and this is Bill O’Brien’s signal to feed Ezekiel Elliott and Rhamondre Stevenson, keeping Tua on the sideline. Jones’ 5.9 yards per attempt last week was the lowest of his career so far and of Mac Jones’ 316 passing yards, 190 came in YAC (60%). By comparison, Herbert had only 229 passing yards last week against MIA and 52 % came from YAC. The signs are there for regression from Jones this week, so I’m placing 1 unit on the under.
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