Ricky Dimon
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What a week of football we have on our hands. A Thursday-through-Monday stretch marks 5 consecutive nights of high-stakes competition, starting with the College Football Playoff semifinals before the NFL takes center stage on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Action on the professional gridiron begins with the Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Houston Texans. Kickoff is set for 4:30 pm ET on CBS.
Here are my best player prop bets for the opening game of the playoffs, and also be sure to check out our full Chargers vs Texans predictions.
Justin Herbert, QB, LAC Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110 at FanDuel)
No coach in the NFL loves his quarterback more than Jim Harbaugh loves Justin Herbert. The Chargers’ first-year head man has full faith in his signal-caller and will have no qualms about letting Herbert air it out all over the field on Saturday. And why not? The Texans are decent against the pass, but they allowed 31 touchdowns through the air during the regular season. Only the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers gave up more. Herbert is more than capable of capitalizing on this opportunity by throwing at least 2 TD passes. The Oregon product has tossed multiple scoring strikes in 4 straight games, including 3 at the New England Patriots’ expense in Week 17.
Joe Mixon, RB, HOU Over 70.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Mixon probably cost a whole bunch of fantasy owners their championship this year (fortunately I had Joe Burrow and was able to overcome Mixon’s late-season implosion). However, we can’t let the last 4 weeks entirely overshadow Mixon’s overall body of work. Houston’s new RB1 still had a productive 2024 campaign. He gained 1325 yards from scrimmage (1016 on the ground) and scored 12 total touchdowns (11 rushing, 1 receiving). There is no reason why he can’t get back on track now that the stakes have increased, plus he has a relatively favorable matchup with Los Angeles. The Chargers gave up the sixth-most yards per rushing attempt during the regular season (4.7). The former Oklahoma standout surpassed the 100-yard mark 7 times, so asking him to exceed 70 this weekend should not be too much.
