Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The primetime games this season have been lackluster. Partially due to the matchups and partially due to just poor offensive outputs. This Thursday, we have the Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) traveling to New Orleans to take on the Saints. Jamaal Williams was activated this week off of the short term IR and is eligible to practice, but at this time we do not know if he will suit up. The Jags, when healthy, are shaping into a formidable opponent in the AFC after going toe to toe with the Chiefs in Week 2 and beating the Bills in London in Week 5.
If Trevor Lawrence cannot go on Thursday, CJ Beathard will get the start. For the Saints, they are still an enigma in this NFC playoff picture. The offensive line has not given Derek Carr much time to operate and the red-zone efficiency has been abysmal. Defensively, there have been glimpses of a Top 15 unit, but they lack a consistent pass rush up front. Make sure to check out our Jacksonville Jaguars vs New Orleans Saints predictions.
Evan Engram, JAX, Over 43.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Saints are preparing as if Trevor Lawrence will be starting Thursday night, and early reports are that he is progressing nicely with his sprained left knee. Engram is facing a Saints defense ranked 2nd overall in man coverage rates, which actually favors Engram as one of the more athletic tight ends in the NFL. Engram is the 9th ranked TE in all of football against man coverage, averaging 10.2 yard per catch, which is nearly 2 yards higher than his 8.4 season average. This should be 4 catches for Engram, who has hit that mark in every game this season. 1U
Check out our Jaguars vs Saints touchdown scorer best bets at +240 and +255 odds
Devin Lloyd, JAX, Over 5.5 tackles and assists (-150)
Line available on BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I apologize for the juice, but this line is -175 on DK and at 6.5 for -120 on Bet365. Lloyd has hit this mark in 66% of games for his career and is getting a Saints team ranked top 10 in rush attempts per game and an offensive line riddled with injuries. Lloyd returned from injury in Week 6 after missing 2 straight games and posted 9 combined tackles. Aside from being a thumper in the run game, Lloyd added 2 pass deflections in coverage and 2 pressures. He has primarily lined up in the box, but has had 14 snaps at DL and 20 in the slot so his ability to grab tackles in the passing game make this line attractive. I’m on this for 1.5U
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Alvin Kamara, NO, Over 4.5 receptions (+100)
Line available on BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Alvin Kamara has had no fewer than 25 combined touches in a game from Weeks 4-6 and is 4th overall among running backs in receptions this season. The crazy part? He has only played in 3 games. The Saints’ RB has seen a massive workload in Jamaal Williams absence and I expect the carries to diminish when Williams returns, but his work in the passing game is his best contribution to the Saints’ offense. He is #1 in target share amongst RBs and 8th in route participation. Aside from a 34-0 rout of the New England Patriots, Kamara has had 13 and 7 receptions. The Jaguars are an interesting matchup for Kamara; they are 30th in passing DVOA and allow the 4th most receptions per game to opposing RBs. At a 28% target share, Kamara can be projected at 8.6 targets and his 92% catch rate this season lands him at just over 7 receptions. This line is too attractive to ignore. 1U.
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