Ricky Dimon
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It was not a particularly memorable Super Wild Card Weekend, with 5 of the 6 home teams dominating and the only interesting result being the Washington Commanders’ road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a doinked-in last-second field goal. Will the Divisional Round be more dramatic? We will start to find out when action gets underway with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans on Saturday afternoon. Kansas City comes in with a 15-2 record and the #1 seed in the AFC, which earned a first-round bye. Houston (10-7) won the AFC South and then hammered the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 last weekend.
Let’s get into our best Texans vs Chiefs player prop bets, which kicks off at 4:30 pm ET on ESPN. You can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for all 4 Divisional Round matchups, which features a 3-star best bet for every game.
Joe Mixon (HOU) over 15.5 rush attempts (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The real Joe Mixon is back! He almost cost me my fantasy championship (luckily Joe Burrow saved the day) with a late-season slump and then was bottled up again during the first half of last week’s Wild Card game against Los Angeles. Suddenly, though, Mixon came out in the 2nd half like gangbusters. The former Oklahoma star was fed the rock 25 times as Houston played with a big lead and looked to salt away the game, parlaying those touches into 106 yards and a touchdown.
Mixon may not get 25 carries against the Chiefs since the Texans don’t figure to be playing from ahead the entire way, but he should get a sizable number regardless of the score. After all, the best defense against Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense is to keep the clock moving and keep Mahomes off the field for as long as possible. That means a Mixon-heavy game script would be wise for the visitors to employ. He has gotten at least 20 carries on 8 occasions this season; getting at least 16 on Saturday certainly shouldn’t be too much to ask.
Read our full Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions to find out our expert’s 3-star best bet
Xavier Worthy (KC) over 4.5 receptions (-140)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Similar to Mixon, there were some ebbs and flows during Worthy’s regular season. However, a midseason slump gave way to a hot streak down the stretch that gives the rookie receiver a ton of momentum heading into the playoffs. He caught at least 5 balls in his last 5 games, including 8 against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. During that stretch, his target totals were 7, 6, 11, 11 and 9.
Rashee Rice’s absence combined with Travis Kelce no longer being the absolute focal point of the offense has led to Worthy getting a lot of looks from Mahomes. It’s also worth noting that Houston allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers during the regular season. This has all the makings of another matchup in which Worthy finds success.
Add some extra spice to this matchup with our Texans vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay picks at +1000 odds
