Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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After 207 days, the NFL is back.
The 2023-2024 season kicks off Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs at home against the highly touted Detroit Lions (+6.5). Jared Goff has squared off in primetime against Patrick Mahomes before, and it resulted in arguably the greatest regular season game of all time (54-51 Rams over Chiefs). When asked about that game last week, Goff welcomed the chance at another shootout. Both teams roll into Week 1 with major changes to their offense compared to last season. The Lions added rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs after jettisoning D’Andre Swift to the Eagles, while the Chiefs continue to double down on Patrick Mahomes and let Juju Smith-Schuster walk in free agency. The total is set at 54.5, implying a high flying affair. Let’s take a look at my favorite player props of the game.
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Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 3.5 Rushing Attempts (+135)
Line available on Bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Mahomes averages 3.7 rush attempts per game for his career in the regular season and the Lions pass rush is formidable. The pressure should move him out of the pocket and scurrying to pick up first downs. This is especially true with a fairly young and inexperienced WR core that Mahomes has to work with again in 2023. The line itself is favorable; it hit in 10/17 (58%) last year and 4/8 at home in the regular season. We should be excited getting this at +135 (40% implied probability). You can pivot to over 13.5 rushing yards if rush attempts are not available on your book, but the real value is getting this at plus money. In 2022, the Lions averaged 5.8 rush attempts to opposing QB’s and allowed this line to hit in 10/17(58%). All of the numbers support this over, so do not be fooled about excessive juice on the under. Mahomes is accustomed to picking up his yards and getting out of bounds without risk of injury. 1U
Check out our Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions
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David Montgomery (DET) over 48.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available on BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
There is a lot of hype around Jahmyr Gibbs this offseason, and while he may be the real deal, I want to use last year’s backfield split as a benchmark in Week 1. I have Montgomery pegged for 13-14 carries Thursday night. I’m also confident in saying that Montgomery hasn’t played behind an offensive line this good in his entire career. At the 13-14 carry mark, Montgomery should hit this number with ease. I have Montgomery projected at 56 yards this Thursday night. Last season when seeing double-digit carries, Montgomery cleared this in 9/12 games. Montgomery has more pop than Jamaal Williams did in the open field and it’s tough to trust a rookie with a big workload right out of the gate. Goff may feel great about a shootout with the Chiefs, but he really shouldn’t. Dan Campbell should look to keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline as long as possible. Montgomery churning away is a big part of that. Oh, did we forget to mention that Chris Jones is out? 1U
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