Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Thursday Night Football in Week 4 is a NFC North showdown between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. Both teams are 2-1 and appear to be battling for the NFC North crown, so this game will likely mean something come December. The storyline for the Packers will be the health of their offensive line, with 3 of 5 starters currently questionable.
Early indications are that David Montgomery will suit up after missing Week 3 with a thigh injury and LT Taylor Decker is trending towards returning as well for the Lions, which would be huge. Detroit is currently -1.5 favorites on the road, so let’s get into my player prop best bets for this primetime game.
Check out our Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers predictions
Sam LaPorta (DET) over 42.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Sam LaPorta is coming off his best game as a professional in Week 3 with 11 targets and 8 receptions for 84 yards and TD. For those that are familiar with Jared Goff, this was expected, but not so soon into the season. Last week’s boost could have been attributed to Josh Reynolds and David Montgomery being sidelined, but I’m expecting this to be a more consistent occurrence now that the rapport has grown between the rookie TE and Goff. LaPorta leads the entire league for “targets per route run” for tight ends in 2023. He is seeing a target on 46.8% of routes run, which is astounding. His 7.3 targets per game is second to only TJ Hockenson and his 15.7 routes run per game should only increase over time.
For the Lions, LaPorta is sitting at 23% target share and should see another 7/8 targets.. As far as the matchup, the Packers rank middle of the pack in terms of defensive performance vs TEs. However, it is worth noting that the Bears and Falcons are two struggling offenses, while the Saints had a QB change in the middle of the game. I expect LaPorta to be a staple in this offense going forward and this is worth 1U.
Jared Goff (DET) over 22.5 completions (-114)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Goff has quietly started the season as a top-5 QB in the NFL, and it’s getting overlooked for the flashier names as one would expect. Through 3 games, he’s 4th in QBR, 5th in QB rating, 6th in the completion percentage, and 3rd in yards per attempt. He’s completing passes at a 70% rate this season, which makes this 22.5 line attractive considering his passing attempt total sits at 33.5. He’s cleared 33 attempts in all 3 games so far and should be getting his starting LT back this week to aid in pass protection. He’s landed on 22 competitions twice already and surpassed it once in 3 games.
I’m expecting David Montgomery to return, which should move Gibbs back to that receiving role and pick up a few extra easy completions to pass this line. Matchup wise, Green Bay is a decent opponent. I can’t put much stock into performances against anemic passing offenses in Chicago and Atlanta, or a split QB game against David Carr/Jameis Winston. This is a 0.5U play, but do not play this higher than 22.5.
