It’s time for SNF! But no, it’s not Sunday Night Football. The Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys will take the field on Saturday night in Arlington, Texas, for what is expected to be a shootout. Oddsmakers have set the total north of 50 points, so I’m anticipating plenty of big plays, great passes, and bad defense. I’ve found 3 player prop best bets for Saturday night’s game, including one at plus odds.
Check out our Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys predictions
Dak Prescott (DAL) Over 275.5 Passing Yards (-114)
On the road, Dak Prescott is a decent quarterback. At home, Prescott is an MVP candidate. In 7 games in Dallas this season, Prescott is averaging 303.5 yards per game with a 74% completion rate and a 122.5 rating. He also has an absurd 20/2 touchdown to interception ratio in that 7-game span. The fewest amount of yards he’s thrown for at home this season was 255 against the Jets back in Week 2, and that was because the Cowboys were winning by such a wide margin in the second half. Just those facts alone would lead me to take this over, but wait, there’s more. Prescott will be facing a Lions secondary that was just shredded by Nick Mullens last week. Mullens ended with 411 passing yards and 2 touchdowns in Minnesota’s loss at home, and that continued a theme for the Lions’ defense.
Similarly to Prescott, the Lions’ secondary prefers to play at home. In Detroit, the Lions allow 199 passing yards per game, which is 11th in the league. However, on the road, the Lions have allowed 266.3 passing yards per game – the 6th worst. Between Prescott’s excellence at home and Detroit’s secondary struggling on the road, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Prescott finish with at least 300 yards.
Dak Prescott (DAL) Over Passing 2.5 touchdowns (+120)
In addition to his passing yards, I’m also taking the over on Presott’s touchdown line. Along with the analysis above, Prescott has thrown for at least 3 touchdowns in 4 of the 7 home games. The Dallas offense runs through Prescott, and Tony Pollard’s role in the offense has diminished significantly since the start of the season. Plus, the Detroit defensive line has some excellent pass rushers like Aidan Hutchinson, so Dallas may try to avoid putting the ball on the ground. Prescott will attack the weak secondary, and I’m expecting Dallas to score all of their touchdowns through the air on Saturday night.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Cowboys have a problem covering elite wide receivers. Last week, Tyreek Hill finished with 99 yards. Before that, A.J. Brown had 94 yards, and before that, DK Metcalf had 134 yards. The Dallas secondary can become too focused on interceptions that they get beat on deep routes by fast receivers, as seen above. That means Amon-Ra St. Brown should be able to shred through the Dallas defense. St. Brown has back-to-back games of at least 100 receiving yards and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that trend continue on Saturday. The rising star averages over 10 targets per game and is one of the most reliable receivers in football, so when a ball gets thrown his way, he rarely drops it. I’m anticipating St. Brown to finish with at least 8 catches for over 100 yards, so I’ll happily play the over on this high 70s line.
