Andrew Wilsher
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NFL Week 6 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. A blowout is projected with the Chiefs currently sitting as 10.5-point favorites. If you’re looking for a bet on the side or total, then head over to our NFL picks page for our predictions on that game and every matchup this season.
The Broncos are once again in rough shape as they come in with a 1-4 record and desperately need a spark to turn their season around. Could it come against the reigning Super Bowl champs in primetime? Let’s dive into our best NFL player prop bets for TNF.
Russell Wilson, QB, DEN, Under 227.5 passing yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
There’s always the risk of garbage-time killing an under for a quarterback’s passing yards prop, especially when they play for a team that is a 10.5-point underdog, but the line feels too high for me to pass up. Wilson has gone under this line in each of his last 2 games, including in Denver’s comeback win against Chicago 2 weeks ago, and struggled to generate any sort of passing game against the Jets last Sunday. Now, he must go against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the 5th-fewest passing yards per attempt and completely shut down Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields a couple of weeks ago.
Both Zach Wilson and Kirk Cousins have gone over this line against KC in recent weeks, but things seem rough for the Broncos’ offense right now. After watching Russ get beaten up by the Jets and now have to play a relentless Chiefs team just 4 days later, I’m expecting the veteran quarterback to have a tough night at Arrowhead.
Get our full Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs predictions for TNF
Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC, Under 77.5 rushing yards (-114)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Another under to target in this matchup is Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards. Again, if the Chiefs are blowing out the Broncos then there is a risk that Pacheco gets a ton of carries in garbage time, but it’s a risk worth taking given how high this line is. The running back has gone over this line just once this season and that happened in a primetime game against the Jets when Patrick Mahomes was struggling. Mahomes should have no issues here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pacheco’s carries limited as a result.
Of course, it must be pointed out that the Broncos have allowed the most yards per carry in the NFL (5.9) and Breece Hall just put up 177 rushing yards on them, but it feels to me like the sportsbooks have overreacted to that fact and set this line a little too high. Denver will no doubt look to address its problems defending the run and although Pacheco should still have a prosperous game, I can still see him finishing under this number.
Be sure to check the rest of our NFL Week 6 Picks in the lead-up to Sunday’s slate
