Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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It is getting down to the wire as we head into Week 16 of the NFL regular season. Thursday Night Football sees the Denver Broncos heading to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers (-2.5) at SoFi Stadium in an all-AFC West showdown. Justin Herbert has been limited all week in practice with the ankle injury he played through in Week 15, but should be good to go. On the Broncos’ side, cornerback Pat Surtain returned to full practice this week while DT Jonathan Franklin-Myers has yet to practice.
Both teams are jockeying for Wild Card spots in the AFC as the Chiefs have clinched the division. However, this will have an impact on seeding overall with the Broncos sitting at 9-5 and the Chargers 8-6; the Chargers won the Week 6 matchup in Denver 23-16, so can leapfrog the Broncos with a victory. With tons on the line, let’s get into my best Broncos vs Chargers player prop bet for TNF, while you can also check out our NFL picks for EVERY Week 16 matchup.
Read our full Denver Broncos vs LA Chargers predictions for TNF — our expert is on a 21-11-2 run!
Javonte Williams (DEN) over 54.5 rush+receiving yards (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
We are buying at the lowest of the low for Javonte Williams this week in Los Angeles. The veteran running back of the Denver committee has struggled mightily of late. His last 3 rushing+receiving combinations have been 4, 4 and 23 yards; yes, you read that correctly. There is reason for hope with Jaleel McLaughlin being ruled out with a quadriceps injury. This leaves Williams and rookie Audric Estime to man the majority of the snaps.
Since his breakthrough, Bo Nix has completed 74.2% of his passes (4th-highest) while recording a 106.7 passer rating (4th-highest) and 12 touchdowns (3rd-most) against zone according to NFL Pro. This matches up well for a redemption story against the Chargers, who have utilized zone coverage at the highest rate in the league. As it relates to Williams, he is second on the team in target share, targets and receptions against zone coverage since Week 5. While the Chargers defend well against the run, only 2 teams allow more targets to opposing running backs than the Chargers (Bills and Falcons). I like Williams to play his part in moving this Broncos offense downfield. 1u
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