Brace yourself — the final Sunday Night Football of the regular season happens this week. The last 18 weeks have gone by in a flash, and we’re left with just one more primetime game on Sunday. Fortunately for us, it’s an exciting matchup between the Bills and Dolphins as the winner of this game will be the champion of the AFC East. And if the Bills lose, they may not even make the postseason! I’ve analyzed the player prop market for this game and have two best bets. Let’s dive in.
Josh Allen (BUF) over 35.5 rushing yards (-115)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Josh Allen has a strong arm, but one of his best attributes is his rushing ability. Allen is not afraid to tuck the ball and run when the pocket collapses, and he frequently scrambles for a score in the red zone. Last week against the Patriots, Allen ran for a season-high 11 rushes and totaled 44 yards. And before that game, Allen was constantly running at least 6 times a game. Based on this line, Allen would need to get about 5-6 yards per carry to hit the over on this line. I’m comfortable with that estimate because Allen averages just under 5 yards per carry this season. Plus, the Dolphins lost linebacker Bradley Chubb to a season-ending injury in the loss last week, so Allen could take advantage of a weak and demoralized defense.
Read our full Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins predictions
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-114)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Sunday Night Football is set to feature plenty of stars, but one that might be missing is Raheem Mostert. The star of Miami’s backfield has been dealing with an ankle and knee injury for weeks and has been absent from practice this week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mostert sidelined in Week 18 because the Dolphins still have De’Von Achane in the backfield. Plus, Mostert not playing benefits Tua Tagovailoa’s chances of throwing at least 2 touchdowns. That’s because Achane is more of a receiving back than Mostert, so while Achane could get rushing opportunities near the end zone, he will also be available for checkdowns. Last week, Achane ran for over 100 yards, but his touchdown came from a pass. Also, it’s hard to forget about Tyreek Hill being available downfield. Tagovailoa should have the opportunities for multiple touchdown passes on Sunday night.
