Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes square off in the AFC Championship on Sunday afternoon. I wish I had a more articulate way to convey how exciting this is, but if you watch football then you understand what we’re about to see. This will be the fourth postseason matchup between the 2 stars and Mahomes, as we all know, has swept the board 3-0 (1 in Buffalo and 2 in Kansas City). The Bills are +1.5 underdogs with the total sitting at 48.5. The forecast projects 32 degrees and cloudy with little chance of showers.
Let’s dive into the props!
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) Over 32.5 receiving yards (-110) — also 40+ at +140 and 50+ at +235
Line available at Bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing
I’m climbing the full ladder on Kincaid this Sunday, as I believe he will be a pivotal part of the game plan. First off, we’re buying low. Kincaid is coming off 2 targets for 1 reception and 11 yards. So we’re getting a good number at 32.5. It’s a number he cleared with ease in last year’s playoffs against the Chiefs, finishing with 5 targets, 5 receptions and 45 yards. I think this year’s matchup is even more advantageous when you consider the Chiefs allow the fourth-highest QB success rate this season when targeting tight ends (Dalton Schultz of the Houston Texans went for 63 yards on 4 catches last week). And this may be observational, but the perimeter receivers in this Buffalo offense have been a non-factor most of this season. Mack Hollins, Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper have yet to pop in any game with Allen. A majority of the receiving success has been done by Khalil Shakir out of the slot, so Kincaid may truly be the second-best receiving option in this offense. I’m going 1u on his base line, 0.75u on 40+ and 0.5u on 50+.
