Ricky Dimon
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My 2 Thursday Night Football prop bets were easy winners, as Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens exceeded 42.5 receiving yards and Ja’Marr Chase of the Cincinnati Bengals went over a 79.5 yardage quota. Yes, you read that right; Chase’s over/under total was 79.5. He surpassed it by…wait for it…184.5 yards. Now we turn our attention to Sunday Night Football, when the Detroit Lions visit the Houston Texans.
Here are my best player prop bets for SNF, and also be sure to check out our full Lions vs Texans predictions.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET Over 60.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Sonic and Knuckles may be the best running-back duo in football – and not just because of their epic nickname. Jahmyr Gibbs (Sonic) and David Montgomery (Knuckles) have been awesome so far this season. Heading into Week 10, Gibbs has 103 carries for 656 yards and 7 touchdowns; Montgomery has 110 rushes for 488 yards and 7 scores. I’m expecting Gibbs to shoulder more of the load on Sunday. He has gotten at least 11 carries in every game this season and is averaging 6.4 yards per attempt. The Alabama product has churned out at least 63 yards in 7 of 8 outings and has amassed at least 116 in 2 of the last 3. With Houston DE Will Anderson Jr. sidelined and DE Danielle Hunter more of a pure pass rusher, Gibbs should be able to do plenty of damage outside the tackles. It’s also worth noting that the Texans are giving up 4.7 yards per carry – ninth most in the league.
Joe Mixon, RB, HOU Over 79.5 rushing yards (-120 at DraftKings)
It’s because he is facing a stout Detroit defense that Mixon’s rushing total is all the way down at 79.5 yards. We are talking about a guy who has exceeded the 100-yard mark in 5 of his 6 games this season. The only exception is when he got hurt in Week 2 against the Chicago Bears after carrying the ball just 9 times. Although the Lions are great defensively, I’m not too worried about Mixon potentially getting bottled up. They are allowing the sixth-most yards per rushing attempt in the NFL (4.8) while ranking in in the top half of the league in that same metric against the pass (6.9 per attempt). I’m also anticipating a positive game script in which the Texans are either playing from ahead or at least staying competitive and thus can keep the ball on the ground in an effort to shorten the game and keep Detroit’s electric offense off the field. Count on Mixon getting a ton of carries (he has gotten 24 or more 3 consecutive outings) and also plenty of yards.
