Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The second game in the MNF double-header is the Washington Commanders (+7.5) taking on the Burrow-led Cincinnati Bengals. After a tough Week 2 loss to Kansas City, the Bengals have fallen to 0-2 and see this matchup as a way to notch one in the win column. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels has looked promising early on, making big plays with his legs and completing 75% of his passes. As Bengals CB Cam Taylor-Britt referenced this week in an interview, they’re making the offense simple, similar to a college offense. Some took this as a jab, but in my opinion, it’s confidence building while he gets used to the speed of the NFL. Tee Higgins is slated to make his 2024 debut on Monday night after missing the first couple of games on the season with injury.
With kickoff slated for Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, it’s time to get into my best prop bet for this matchup under the lights in Cincinnati.
Jayden Daniels (WAS) under 18.5 completions (-110)
Line available on Bet365 sportsbook at time of publishing.
As mentioned above, Daniels is averaging 75% completion percentage to start the season. The caveat to that is he has yet to face a man coverage defense through 2 weeks. I’m drastically expecting that number to come down. Only Luke McCaffrey was able to separate in coverage above 60% (McLaurin was exactly 60% in Week 2). I expect Washington to come out early and try to milk the clock with a solid run game and once the game gets out of hand he will be forced to make throws down the field. In a game where he was down 2 scores in the 2nd half to Tampa Bay, he only completed 17 of his 24 attempts. With Robinson, Ekeler, and Daniels all trying to succeed on the ground, I struggle to see Daniels consistently beating man coverage and tight window throws. Mahomes went 18/25 last week vs CIN and Brissett 15/24 in Week 1. This will be a 1u play for me.
Don’t miss our full Commanders vs Bengals predictions
