Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
The NFL kicks off the London series in Week 5 with the New York Jets (+2.5) taking on the Minnesota Vikings. The total is set at a grim 40.5 and there are plenty of storylines in this game to go over. The most obvious being Sam Darnold squaring off against the team that drafted him; however, he enters this game undefeated and in the MVP conversation. The Jets are 2-2 and at times have looked the part of playoff caliber team and at times have struggled to move the ball offensively. The defense is not what everyone expected after the past 2 seasons, but they’re still an above average unit. Let’s get into my best player prop bet for this international matchup.
Sauce Gardner (NYJ) over 3.5 tackles + assists (-135)
Line available at Bet365 sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This play has some juice to it, but I couldn’t find it on DK or FD just yet so may publish it on another book at a better price before kickoff. I still like it at( -135). In Gardner’s 37 game career, he’s hit this line in 21/37 (56%), which is encouraging in itself. Then I dove deeper into a few of the 21 games he cashed:he’s hit this in 3/4 vs Tyreke Hill, once vs CeeDee Lamb, 1/2 vs Amari Cooper, once vs Jamar Chase. You get the idea. The Vikings couldn’t fathom not throwing the ball Justin Jefferson’s way despite having Gardner as the main defender so I expect Sauce to have plenty of opportunities to pick up tackles. Jefferson has seen 7+ targets in 3/4 games this season and 43% of his targets are from short distances (0-9 yards) to start the season. With Addison back as the deep threat, Jefferson’s short yardage targets are up to 50% vs just 34% in games 1 and 2. This should get Jefferson with the ball in his hands early and Gardner has a better chance of joining in on the tackle. This is a 1u play from me.
