Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We have a double-header in Week 3 for Monday Night Football. Kicking off first is the Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) heading to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Trevor Lawrence has struggled mightily over the last 10 games and hasn’t won a start since November 26th, 2023. They looking to hold off an 0-3 start while the Bills are quietly chugging along at 2-0. They should come into this game well prepared as they’re coming off a Week 2 Thursday Night Football win over the Miami Dolphins.
Without any further ado, let’s get into my best prop bet prediction for this AFC matchup under the lights in Buffalo.
Keon Coleman (BUF) over 34.5 receiving yards (-113)
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
After a nice start in Week 1 for Coleman (5 targets 4 receptions 51 yards) he was held completely in check Week 2 against the Dolphins. It was the James Cook show in that TNF showdown and the passing game wasn’t relied upon heavily. The reason I’m high on Coleman in Week 3 is that Jacksonville plays Man Coverage at the highest rate in the NFL. While no Bills receiver has more than 1 catch against Man Coverage this season, Coleman has the highest target share against this look and we’re buying low coming off a Week 2 dud.
Coleman’s 12.75 yards per reception in Week 1 is a good indication that this could clear this prop as few as 3 catches, but I’m expecting him to get in that 5-7 target range. He’s running 90% of the routes through 2 weeks, which is more than fellow rookies McConkey, Polk, Mitchell. He can win in small spaces and has the ability to create YAC. It’s a matter of chemistry building with Josh Allen and those extra few days of practice this week should help in that regard. This is a 1u play from me and it is playable to 36.5.
Don’t miss our full Jaguars vs Bills predictions
