Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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When the NFL was coming up with the TNF schedule, they saw Sean Payton returning to New Orleans and assumed it would be a storyline everyone would gravitate towards. Well, 7 weeks into the NFL season and bettors are rolling their eyes at a Bo Nix vs Spencer Rattler showdown. As you can imagine, both teams are banged up on a short week. Both starting WRs for New Orleans (Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed) are questionable to play on Thursday Night Football. Taysom Hill has missed the last 2 games and offensive lineman Cesar Ruiz may not play as well.
For the Broncos, they’re missing WR Josh Reynolds and head coach Sean Payton is making claims that he wants to see more of the youth movement in WR Devaughn Vele, WR Troy Franklin and RB Audric Estime. The Broncos are -2.5 road favorites with the total set at 37. Let’s get into my best Broncos vs Saints player prop bet for TNF, while you can also see our NFL picks for tonight and every matchup in Week 7.
Read our full Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints prediction
Wil Lutz (DEN) over 6.5 kicking points (-115)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is an ugly game and instead of throwing a dart at a skill-position player or buying into Sean Payton’s coach speak about Estime, or rolling the dice on a Nix/Rattler breakout performance, I’m playing it safe. According to PFF, the Broncos have a clear edge in terms of their offensive line against the Saints’ defensive line in both rushing and passing situations. The game total is sitting at a ripe 37.5 depending on which book you use and I’m going to take the angle that the ball does move up and down the field, but we fail to see these young QBs succeed in the red zone. The Saints have allowed the 3rd-most made field goals all season (14 total) and they’re the 4th-best red zone defense over the last 3 games (46.15% of red zone trips ending in a TD). Points could be at a premium and there’s a small revenge factor here. No, not Sean Payton. Lutz spent the first 6 seasons of his career with New Orleans. Let’s lock in this fun kicker prop for TNF.
Don’t miss our Broncos vs Saints touchdown scorer best bets at HUGE +500 and +550 odds
