Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Sunday Night Football in Week 11 gives us a pair of the best young QB’s in the league with Joe Burrow and the 4-6 Bengals heading to Los Angeles to take on Justin Herbert and the 7-4 Chargers (-1.5). The Bengals will get Tee Higgins back after missing the last 3 games. It’s worth mentioning that the Bengals are 3-2 with Higgins in the line up. The Chargers are #1 in the NFL defensively for opponent points per game (13.1), but have gone through recent struggles in the run game defensively. The total is set at an exciting 47.5 and we should be able to close out Sunday on a high note.
Justin Herbert (LAC) over 20.5 completions (-138)
Herbert is playing some of the best football of his career in this recent stretch for the Chargers. His passer rating hasn’t dipped below 111 over the last 3 games, he’s completing 68% of his passes over the last 4 contests, and this one will shape up to be a shootout on Sunday. On the other side, the Bengals have accumulated the 4th fewest sacks in the NFL and their pass rush is in the bottom 10 in the league. For Herbert, he’s completing 72% of his passes when not under pressure. This line is as high as 22.5 on some books, but for 20.5 I’ll pay the juice and lay an additional half a unit. Herbert failed to come near this in back-to-back games, but the matchups were two of the worst offenses in the league (Cleveland & Tennessee) and the Chargers were able to rely heavily on the run game to eat clock. Against Cincinnati, expect Herbert to have to rely on his arm should this become the shootout we’re all hoping for. This is a 1.5 unit play from me.
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