Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The NFL nailed the Week 1 primetime games (all 4) and they’re off to another hot start in Week 2 with the Buffalo Bills (+2.5) traveling down to Miami to take on the Dolphins. Both teams are 1-0 with impressive wins in terms of performance and opponent. The Dolphins will be without starting RB Raheem Mostert and speedster Devon Achane is a game-time decision. Veteran RB Jeff Wilson Jr. is expected to start, but rookie RB Jaylen Wright will likely play a complementary role. Buffalo won both games last season against Miami, including a Week 18 primetime game that ended 21-14. How will things pan out tonight? You can read our Bills vs Dolphins predictions on the side and total, but for now, let’s dive into my best Bills vs Dolphins player prop bet for Thursday Night Football.
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Dalton Kincaid (BUF) over 4.5 receptions (+105)
Odds available on Bet365 at the time of publishing.
Kincaid had a dud first game, but the raw data was promising: 88% of snaps, 83% of routes, 9% of targets. The targets part is meh, but when you look back at his passing downs, the Cardinals made it a clear focus to take him out of the game and let the rookie (Keon Coleman) and new weapons beat them. Sure enough, Josh Allen got it done. It’s also worth mentioning that the Bills only threw the ball 23 times in that game, well below their average of 33 attempts per game last season.
Getting this prop at plus-money odds feels like an overreaction and despite the Dolphins doing a great job of defending Evan Engram last week, I’m taking Kincaid to be more involved for Week 2 in what should be a shootout. Kincaid his this in 1 of his 2 games against Miami last season, which included an 8-target, 7-reception performance. Kincaid is the #1 option on this Bills passing attack and I’m expecting them to get him more involved in Week 2. I’m also laddering on over 5.5 and over 6.5 receptions at 0.5u and 0.25u.
After going 3-0 on Sunday, don’t miss our expert’s best Bills vs Dolphins touchdown scorer picks at +170 and +125 odds
