Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We have a Monday Night Football double-header with 2 enjoyable games from a betting perspective. The first kickoff at 8:15 pm ET has the Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) heading south to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (total 49.5). On paper, the Ravens have an advantage across the offensive line in both the run and pass categories according to PFF. Defensively we see the same trend, as the o-line of the Buccaneers will likely struggle to hold up against Baltimore. WR Mike Evans was held out of practice through Friday and will be a game-time decision. If Evans is a scratch, it will be tough to back the Bucs in any capacity. It’s something to monitor.
Justice Hill, RB, BAL Over 32.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
Line available at Bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Derrick Henry lines have become almost un-bettable in some cases because of the success he has had out of the gate. His TD odds are nearly 2-1 across all books and his rushing totals are resting in the mid-80s. I’m going to slightly zag this week based on the matchup against Tampa Bay. Justice Hill has been quiet these last 2 weeks, but he has been praised for how he has held up in pass blocking. Many would be shocked to know that Hill played 46.5% of snaps to Henry’s 54% and this is a matchup that Hill can really thrive in as the 3rd-down back. The Bucs rank 31st in targets to opppsing running backs on the season (48) and receptions (39). Hill has hit this in 3 of 6 games so far and I think he will see a snap boost for his pass-blocking prowess against a Bucs defense that ranks 8th overall in blitz rate. At some point, offensive coordinator Todd Monken will draw up a play for Hill that makes Tampa Bay pay for that move. His median rush attempts are at 4 with a 4.75 YPC to match, giving us a baseline of about 17 rush yards to be added to a higher upside in the passing game. I’m riding with Hill on Monday night. 1u.
