Caleb Wilfinger
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After an eventful Divisional Round Weekend, we’re onto Conference Championship Weekend in the NFL Playoffs, which means the Ravens and 49ers will look to hold serve at home and advance to the Super Bowl. Following the Chiefs’ victory over the Bills on the road last weekend, they have a matchup with the Ravens in Baltimore on Sunday to decide the AFC.
I have taken a look at the player prop market and have 2 picks to lock in for this AFC Championship Game matchup. Let’s get into it.
Check out our full Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens predictions
Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL Over 10.5 rushing attempts (-110)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Much like I wrote about last weekend for the Bills, the biggest advantage that the Ravens will have in this game is running the ball against this Chiefs defensive front. Kansas City is 28th in the league in EPA per rush on defense and Buffalo consistently got terrific push against the Chiefs offensive line, allowing for great success on quarterback designed runs, particularly in short-yardage situations. The same can be expected of a Ravens team that has the best rushing offense in the NFL this season. Baltimore often turn to Lamar Jackson to dig them out of a hole when the chips are down, and he typically uses his legs to do so. Take last week’s game for example, where Jackson’s scramble rate increased and the Ravens offense saw great success in the designed quarterback run game as well. Considering that kneel downs count for this prop as well, I love the over at this number.
Rashee Rice, WR, KC Under 61.5 receiving yards (-110)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 60.5
Rookie wideout Rashee Rice has been a massive focal point of the Kansas City offense over the last 2 months of the season, but I think he’s set up for a quiet game on Sunday. The Bills stuck a banged-up Rasul Douglas on Rice last week and Kansas City ended up targeting the depleted linebacking corps of Buffalo instead, which limited Rice’s effectiveness on the outside. And while I do expect a higher target share for the young receiver this week, he’ll be shadowed by Marlon Humphrey in this game, which doesn’t present an easy matchup. Therefore, the secondary targets are more likely to shine in big spots. I also expect a heavy dose of Travis Kelce over the middle, which might not leave many targets for Rice in the WR1 spot. Even if Rice finishes with 6 catches or so, he could still very easily go under this number.
