Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The second game of the Saturday slate is mini-playoff game in itself. The winner takes the AFC South title and advances to the playoffs as the 7-9 Tennessee Titans are heading to Jacksonville to take on the 8-8 Jaguars (-6.5). The Titans will be starting Joshua Dobbs at QB this week and you can expect a heavy dose of Derrick Henry if Tennessee wants to pull off the upset. Jacksonville has several players with contract incentives that may impact our player props for the matchup, but let’s look at the best plays for Saturday night’s game.
Check out our full Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars predictions
Christian Kirk (JAX) over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at BetMGM at the time of publishing.
This one is a play based on contract incentives, but it helps when you play the 28th-ranked pass defense. Kirk has hit this mark in 9/15 games and needs 91 yards to hit 1,100 on the season and earn a $500K contract incentive. The first-year Jaguar was quiet in his Week 14 matchup against the Titans, finishing with 7 targets, 5 receptions and 45 yards. The two big performers in that game were TE Evan Engram and WR Zay Jones. Kirk has been the most reliable of the 3, and I believe will shine in this second go around. Tennessee will have healthier Denico Autry and Jeffrey Simmons to get pressure on Trevor Lawrence and force him to make quicker decisions.
In those scenarios, Lawrence will look to Kirk, who’s caught 53% of his receptions in short-yardage situations. In the first matchup, the Titans didn’t register a sack, and Lawrence was able to complete 75% of his passes beyond 10 yards or more, well above his season average of 51%. I’m expecting that to change Saturday night, and Lawrence finds his most reliable target all season to lead the Jaguars to a playoff berth. 1U
Check out our Titans-Jaguars touchdown scorer best bets!
Evan Engram (JAX) over 4.5 receptions (-128)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is…unsurprisingly related to contract incentives, but it doesn’t make it a bad play. Engram needs 61 receiving yards to hit an additional $200,000 in incentives for the season, and as my colleague, Jared Smith pointed out, his contract ends this season. This limits the Jaguars’ ability to move around money into future years through other various incentives should he fall short. In that regard, I believe they will get Engram plenty of opportunities Saturday night. However, this line is well above a standard Engram line of 42.5-48.5 that I feel comfortable with. From a receptions standpoint, he’s hit 5+ in 4 of his last 5 games. After exploding in Week 14 versus TEN for 11 receptions and 162 yards 2 TDs, it’s going to be hard for him to fly under the radar this week. The Titans allowed a league worst 8.5 targets per game to opposing TEs, and the receptions line makes me feel a little more comfortable than an inflated receiving line. 1.5U
Austin Hooper (TEN) over 23.5 receiving yards (-113)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Wait… a play with nothing related to contract incentives? Yes! Hooper was the TE with the highest snap count of all 3 in Week 17 versus the Cowboys. In that game, he saw the 3rd highest targets (6) of anyone on the team, but unfortunately only hauled in one reception. The Jaguars rank 31st in pass DVOA versus TEs allowing 60 YPG to opposing TEs. In Hoopers’ first matchup against the Jags, he had his best game of the season: 5 targets, 5 receptions and 68 yards. The Titans could be without Treylon Burks, and Dobbs will need another big-bodied target in the middle of the field. 1U
Our Titans-Jaguars Same Game Parlay has +563 odds!
Anytime TD Scorers
Christian Kirk +200
Chigoziem Okonkwo +600
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