Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The first Sunday Night Football matchup is a repeat of the 2021 kickoff game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys. However, both teams walk into this season hobbled across the offensive line. The Cowboys lost LT Tyron Smith for the season and replaced him with 40-year-old Jason Peters. The Buccaneers have lost starting center Ryan Jensen, Ali Marpet retired, and the entire interior offensive line is different from last season. I’m expecting both teams to sputter coming out of the gate as a result, but let’s look at what that means for player props.
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Mike Evans under 71.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Evans played the most snaps of his career in the slot last season (234) and that number has increased year-on-year since 2018. Coincidently, if we track his % of snaps in the slot against his production, there is a negative correlation on his yards. When Evans spends over 39.5% of his snaps in the slot, he only hits this line in 2/6 games. Against Dallas last season, Evans spent around 42% of his snaps in the slot and finished the game with 6 targets, 3 catches and 24 yards. Last season, Evans averaged 64.6 YPG and with the recent changes to the interior OL for Tampa, I think it can continue to negatively impact his stats. This number is as low as 67.5 on some books, so I’m jumping on 71.5 while it’s available.
Be sure to check out our full Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys predictions
Tom Brady to throw an interception (-130)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Historically, the way to beat Tom Brady is with pressure up the middle. When he doesn’t have the ability to step up in the pocket, it throws off his timing and his rhythm. We could finally see Tom Brady start to significantly decline this season due to inconsistencies on the interior offensive line of the Bucs. Brady has never been one to be reckless with the football, but he’s coming off back-to-back seasons with 12 interceptions. Last year, he had 9 games with an INT and against Dallas in Week 1, he threw for 2 INTs. He’s going into the system without his safety net of Rob Gronkowski and with new WR3 in Russell Gage. It could take time to develop a connection with Gage considering how much time Brady missed in camp.
Oh, and did I forget to mention the Cowboys led the NFL last season with 26 INTs? Good. Glad I got that in there.
Tom Brady over 0.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Tom Brady has gotten friskier in his old age as he hit this line in 12/17 games last year (70%). I’ve already beaten the interior offensive line angle to death in this article, but there’s a reason analysts say the game starts in the trenches. If Dallas manages to consistently win the battle up front, we could see Brady taking off on a 3rd-and-long to lock this one up.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys same game parlay
Lines available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Cameron Brate to score a touchdown
Mike Evans alternate under 84.5 receiving yards
Under 54.5 alternate total points
Same game parlay odds: +850
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