Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The 49ers have an opportunity to clinch the division and a top 3 seed in the NFC with a win over the Seahawks on Thursday night. Rookie QB Brock Purdy stepped into the starting role last week against the Buccaneers, and performed better than anyone could have expected. Under pressure, Purdy was 7/8 for 109 yards and 2 TDs. Purdy spread the ball around the field effectively and didn’t shrink in the moment. Now, he goes on the road for the first time in his career into one of the most chaotic stadiums in the league. I’m expecting Kyle Shanahan to formulate a game plan that will make use of the silent count and focus on the run game and short passes. Deebo Samuel will be out Thursday night, so I’m excited to see who steps up in his place. Let’s take a look at some props!
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George Kittle over 3.5 receptions (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
With Deebo Samuel out and a silent count initiated, I’m expecting a lot of short yardage passing situations. These should all greatly benefit George Kittle. Kittle saw 5 targets for 4 receptions last week against TB and the run game was ramped up in the second half, limiting additional pass catching opportunities. Kittle’s aDOT last week was a measly 2.8 yards, but that works perfectly for this reception play. Normally, the short-yardage targets are allocated to Deebo, who averaged 3.41 short targets (0-9) per game. I’m expecting these to filter their way over to Kittle who’s averaging 5 targets per game.
Seattle is 27th in DVOA vs TEs, allowing 7.8 targets per game. For the 49ers, this game is critical, and having Kittle as your go-to option for a rookie QB in his first road start will be a major theme all night. Kittle has hit this in 4/5 road game all season. 1U
Don’t miss our 49ers vs Seahawks Same Game Parlay at +2200 odds!
Geno Smith under 33.5 pass attempts (-105)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
I’m expecting a very slow and methodical offensive approach to the 49ers’ offense tomorrow night. Purdy will be in the first road start of his career and an effective run game will go a long way in quieting the Seattle fan base. San Francisco is one of the slowest-paced teams in the NFL, averaging the 2nd most seconds per play and 3rd overall in TOP at 32:07. Conversely, I can see Purdy struggling to put points on the board to start the game, giving Kenneth Walker ample opportunities to run, even if it is an act of futility.
This line (33.5) is one below Smith’s home average of 35 pass attempts per game, but given the game total (43.5) and the opponent, I think we’re getting an advantageous line. San Francisco is allowing only 30.5 pass attempts per game on the road and is one of the best teams in the NFL at getting to the quarterback. In the 5 games this season for Seattle that went under 43.5, Smith has gone under in 4/5. 1U
Our expert has two 49ers vs Seahawks touchdown scorer best bets!
49ers vs Seahawks anytime TD scorer picks
Kenneth Walker +105
George Kittle +220
