Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The NFL kicks off in Mexico City Monday night and the 49ers are 8-point favorites. The biggest storyline is surrounding Kyler Murray being a game-time decision. At the time of writing this article, there are only lines up for James Conner; no other Arizona skill players are listed. It’s unfortunate, but there are still 2 angles I really love that Murray’s absence has little effect on. If Murray can’t go, Colt McCoy will get the start. Based on the line being at 8 points, I am expecting McCoy to get the starting nod.
Deebo Samuel Over 50.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Samuel has enjoyed a lot of success against this Cardinals team recently. Last season he averaged 60.5 yards receiving in 2 games against Arizona. He missed both games against the Cards in 2020, but in 2019 he exploded for 8 receptions in 134 yards. Now this Cardinals defensive is very different from 3 years ago, but they have some clear deficiencies that Samuel can exploit. The Cards rank 29th overall in DVOA for short passes, which is where 84% of Samuels receptions have come. In those short-yardage situations he is averaging 9.1 yards of YAC per reception. You could pivot to over 4.5 receptions at -135, but I feel comfortable with the yards at less juice.
1U from me. Play up to 53.5
George Kittle Over 3.5 receptions (-135)
Line available on BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Arizona has struggled mightily against tight ends this season. They Cardinals are allowing 73.6 ypg and more than 8 pass attempts per to opposing TEs , which is good for 31st in DVOA. This is the perfect game for Kittle to get involved in the passing game following 2 weeks of lying dormant. Historically, the Cards have been a team Kittle has had success against. He has also hit this line in 6 straight games against the Cardinals. Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Tyler Higbee (twice), Dallas Goedert, Noah Fant (twice) and Juwan Johnson have all hit this line against the Cardinals. Kittle will likely be another name on that list.
1.5U from me.
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Christian McCaffrey & 49ers ML +105
SF Defense/Special Teams +450
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