Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We were fortunate to kick off the 2022 season with the defending Super Bowl champions against the new Super Bowl hopefuls. That was followed up by Justin Herbert vs Patrick Mahomes. After that, the NFL didn’t pay much attention to the TNF schedule and we’re relegated to Mitch Trubisky against Jacoby Brissett in prime time. Lucky for us, we have the ability to bet on the game and make it more entertaining. There are a few spots I have lined up that should be profitable. Check them out below!
Najee Harris to score a touchdown (+160)
Line available at the time of publishing at Draftkings Sportsbook.
Yes, I’m making a TD one of my key plays for the game. Before you overreact to the dominance of the Browns’ rushing defense, I’d ask that you look at both performances with context. We can all agree the Bengals’ offensive is one of the worst in the league, and the Jets averaged 5.9 YPC last week. For Harris, he scored in both games against the Browns last year and is still looking for his first TD of the season. He’s had 4 red zone rushing opportunities this season (66%), and the Browns are ranked 22nd in Opp Red Zone Scoring Percentage (71.43%) and give up 3.5 red zone opportunities per game (tied for 17th). The injury did not impact Harris’ snap count as mentioned above, and these odds should be +110 or shorter; at +160, this is a gift. I’ll put 0.5U on.
Be sure to check out our Steelers vs Browns same game parlay (+925 odds!)
Donovan Peoples-Jones over 2.5 receptions (+100)
Line available at the time of publishing at Caesars Sportsbook.
This is my favorite play of the game. Donovan Peoples-Jones had a career-high 11 targets in Week 1 and then completely fell off in Week 2, posting 0 catches on 1 target against the Jets. This was partially due to the Jets playing more zone coverage (70%) than man and drawing Sauce Gardner in few man instances. Gardner stands at 6’3″ 200 lbs, and will eventually be known as an elite corner in this league.
The Steelers play man defense roughly 40% of the time, which is where Steelers WR coach Chad O’Shea believes People-Jones excels. “Especially when you are facing teams that are going to play tight man coverage and schematically do some things to try to make it difficult on you, you are going to have to have the ability to make the difficult catches,” O’Shea said. “Fortunately, with a player like Donovan, he has been very good in that area. We consider it a strength and are sure glad to have him.” The Browns were successful in establishing the run game against the Jets, and Peoples-Jones disappeared. Against the Steelers Thursday night, I believe they will make it a point to get him the ball. Week 16 2021 Peoples-Jones started against the Steel Curtain and finished with 3 catches for 76 yards on 5 targets. I’m on this for 1.5U.
Mitch Trubisky under 20.5 completions (-120)
Line available at the time of publishing at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Back to the well on this play. I wrote this same play for Week 2 against the Patriots at the same line, and he finished with 21 completions. Losing on the hook stings, but it means you were pretty spot on in your read. Against the Browns, I like it even more. For one, the Browns dominated the time of possession, ranking 3rd in the league at 35 mpg. Secondly, the Browns rank 3rd overall in Pass Rush according to PFF. While Jadaveon Clowney will be out, Myles Garrett is banged up but should play. Trubisky’s completion percentage drops to 29.4% under pressure, which is the worst in the league for any starting QB (now that Trey Lance is done for the year).
Trubisky completed 21 passes exactly in both games to start the season; however, one went into OT where he attempted 12 passes. One last piece that put me over the edge for repeating this bet: Najee Harris averaged 5.16 YPC in two games against the Browns last year. He should be able to get going against the Browns team. And for those who are concerned with his injury, Harris played more snaps and a higher % of snaps in Week 2 versus Week 1 – he should be fine. I’ll tread lightly and go 0.5U on the repeat.
Steelers vs Browns same game parlay (+400)
Line available at the time of publishing at Draftkings Sportsbook.
- Najee Harris TD
- Donovan Peoples-Jones alternate line over 19.5 receiving yards
- Browns alternate spread +3.5
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