Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
Joe Burrow going up against Tua Tagovailoa is a better matchup than most would have projected back in August. The Dolphins are one of the more surprising teams through 3 weeks as rookie head coach Mike McDaniels has knocked off Bill Belichick, John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott. The Bengals are feeling the Super Bowl hangover after getting off to a 1-2 start. At the time of writing this article, Tagovailoa is listed as questionable due to back and ankle injuries after being limited in practice on Tuesday. The line is currently at Bengals -3.5 or -4 depending on your book.
Let’s look at my favorite player props.
Don’t miss our NFL picks for every Week 4 game — we’re 13-5 on best bets this season!
Joe Burrow over 268.5 passing yards (-114)
Line available at the time of publishing on FanDuel sportsbook.
This line is all over the place depending on which book you shop at. I have seen it at high as 274.5 at Caesars, but at 268.5 I’m all over it. Burrow has hit this in 2 of 3 games this season ant I really like the play for this matchup. The Dolphins rank 29th in coverage according to PFF and opposing QBs have been highly efficient as a result. Miami ranks 26th in opponents’ completion percentage (68%). The key will be keeping the pressure off of Burrow long enough, but fortunately, these receivers have the ability to create YAC. Cincinnati is 8th in the league in YAC, averaging 133 yards per game after the catch. If you can get the 268.5 yards, I’m on it for 1.5U. Anything over 270.5 I would scale back to 1U.
Be sure to check out our full Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals predictions
Tee Higgins over 4.5 receptions (-148)
Line available at the time of publishing on FanDuel sportsbook.
This is a lot of juice, but I feel good about this line at any number below 5.5. Higgins will draw Nik Needham in coverage, and Needham ranks 81st out of 109 CBs in coverage according to PFF. Higgins performs significantly better at home across multiple metrics: +18.8% higher catch rate +2.25 receptions per game, +3.26 yards per reception and +4.79 yards per target all in 2021. Outside of the opening game, Higgins has had 10 and 7 targets.
You could pivot to Higgins over 62.5 for less juice, but I feel more confident in him getting his targets Thursday night while Xavien Howard trails Ja’Marr Chase.Tyler Boyd gets the unlucky task of matching up with Kader Kohou, who is graded out as the 14th-best CB in league and spends 71% of the time in the slot. Higgins is just below Chase in target share and only has 2 less for the season. I have 1U on Boyd. The 5.5 is just outside of my comfort zone.
Don’t miss our Dolphins vs Bengals best touchdown scorer bets
Dolphins vs Bengals Same Game Parlay (+426)
Joe Burrow 250+ passing yards
Tee Higgins 50+ receiving yards
Jaylen Waddle 50+ receiving yards
Joe Mixon TD
My SGP is a teased-down version of my plays and I’ve added in Jaylen Waddle at 50+ yards and Joe Mixon TD. Waddle hasn’t dipped below 69 yards all season and is more likely to draw Eli Apple in coverage than Tyreke Hill despite all the media hype. The Dolphins have given up 2 TDs in 3 games to opposing RB’s and are middle of the pack in tackling (18th). Mixon has 9 red-zone rush attempts and 3 red-zone passing targets in 3 games.
Pickswise is the home of free NFL Predictions and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks.
