Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The primetime matchups in Week 4 are certainly worth the hype on paper. This Monday night we get a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship, with the Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) traveling to face the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams will continue their shuffle on the offensive line with Guard David Edwards expected to be out and the 49ers will be missing Trent Williams. Both injuries could have a major impact on how these offenses perform. We’re all well aware of the history between Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, so let’s look at the best player props for this game.
Check out our full game analysis of Rams vs 49ers.
Jimmy Garoppolo interception (+100)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Garoppolo has thrown an INT against this Rams defense 8 times across 7 games. LT Trent Williams will be missing Monday night that will lead to Jimmy G being under pressure more than usual. While Shanahan will do his best to emphasize the run game, a negative game script would show Garoppolo dropping back close to 30 times. In games against the Rams in which Jimmy G threw 30+ passes, he threw an INT in 3/4 games (5 total). This is -105 on some books, but for +100 I’ll put 0.5U on it.
Allen Robinson over 38.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Allen Robinson experiment has not been successful through the first few weeks of the season and this line is a clear reflection of that. His lines reached as high as 56.5 in Week 1, but Robinson has fallen to the 3rd receiving option behind Kupp and Tyler Higbee. For me, this is a buy low spot. Robinson has still seen 5+ targets in each of the last two games and his aDOT has been shrinking each week. I take this as a sign that they’re looking for more ways to get Robinson the ball instead of being just a deep threat. Courtland Sutton had lots of success last week spread out wide, which is where Robinson will line up as Kupp does most of his work from the slot (53%). I’m going with 1U on A-Rob to have his first big game for the Rams on Monday night.
Brandon Aiyuk over 48.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
No one on the 49ers should be happier about Jimmy Garoppolo starting than Brandon Aiyuk. He’s seen 8+ targets in back-to-back weeks and hit his number in the last two games against the Rams (including the playoffs). This Rams secondary is riddled with injuries and playing rookies significant snaps. Marquise Brown had the best game of his career last week against rookie CB Derion Kendrick. I expect Aiyuk to be a big factor in this game. He’s had a 20+ yard reception in each game this season and with the increased targets, this line can be hit in 4 receptions. This is my 2U play of the night.
Anytime TD scorers
Tyler Higbee +280
George Kittle +185
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