Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The primetime game on Saturday night is the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5). Both teams met in Week 3 of the regular season in Los Angeles where the Jaguars burst onto the scene and won 38-10. It was one of Justin Herbert’s worst performances of the season, with a season low 55% completion percentage and two turnovers (INT, fumble), but it’s worth mentioning he was coming off the rib injury he suffered in the prior week’s game versus KC. Trevor Lawrence makes his playoffs debut, which is usually the recipe for disaster as we’ve seen historically, but the great ones tend to overcome that trend. I love where Jacksonville is going, but I have the Chargers getting out of the first round, 31-17.
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Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing TDs (-140)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Herbert is one of the few QBs that I have a lot of confidence in for his first ever playoff appearance. The Jaguars pass defense is easily one of the worst in the league (30th in pass DVOA) and I’m confident that Herbert is looking to avenge that poor performance versus JAX earlier in the season. I’m surprised this line didn’t open at 2.5 at plus money, but I’ll pay for the juice knowing Herbert has hit this in 2 straight games to the end the season and 60% of games in his career. Mike Williams was officially declared out on Friday, but I have every expectation that Austin Ekeler and Josh Palmer can pick up the slack in the receiving game. Either way, the Chargers have enough pass catchers to hit this line with ease as the team total TDs are heavily juiced over 2.5. This is a 1.5U play for me.
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Keenan Allen Over 74.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Allen has hit this in 60% of game this season and has seen 9 or more targets in 5 of 6 games to end the year, and that number would have been 6 of 6 had the LA Rams game not been out of reach by the 3rd quarter. The Jaguars are ranked 28th in DVOA versus WR1s and the Chargers will need to rely on Allen to come out victorious in this road playoff matchup. Allen missed the first matchup with Jacksonville this season, but Josh Palmer thrived in his place, finishing with 6 receptions for 99 yards. Jacksonville slot CB Tre Herndon has had an up-and-down season inside.
He graded out positively against the Texans and Jets (shocker), but struggled mightily against Cowboys and Colts. Herndon is allowing 14.8 yards per reception. If Jacksonville reverts to Darious Williams in the slot, Allen will have a massive size advantage to exploit since Williams is allowing 11.4 yards per reception. 1U.
Justin Herbert Over 7.5 rushing yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Jacksonville has one of the highest pressure rates in the league, currently 4th overall behind the Eagles, Jets and Cowboys. This pressure should lead to Herbert looking to escape out of the pocket more and make plays with his legs, where he is more than capable of hitting this number in one rush. This season he has scaled back his rushing greatly compared to his first two seasons. He’s averaging 8.6 Y/G (still above this line), but compared to 17.8 and 15.6 ypg his first 2 seasons. That all goes out the window in the playoffs. Eleven QBs have hit this number versus the Jaguars all season and I expect Herbert to have plenty of opportunities to tuck it and run this weekend. 1U.
Anytime TD Scorer
Keenan Allen +125
Gerald Everett +280
Evan Engram +240
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