Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Monday Night Football to put a bow on NFL Week 16 has the Los Angeles Chargers (-4) heading to the Midwest to play the Indianapolis Colts, who are now led by Nick Foles. The Chargers are still playing for their playoff spot while the Colts are presumably trotting out Foles in hopes of securing a top-2 pick. The Chargers have played well of late and are 3-1 ATS as road favorites.
We see it at least once or twice at the end of regular seasons that teams successfully play spoiler to playoff hopefuls, so the Colts will not go away without a fight. The day after Christmas could have both teams starting sluggishly, so lets see what impact that may have on player props.
Gerald Everett over 31.5 receiving yards (-120)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m going to back to Gerald Everett, but the Colts rank 26th overall in DVOA against tight ends. In the 4 games that Everett has played with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen this year, he has averaged 6.75 targets, 4 receptions and 46 yards per game. On the season, Everett has had 4+ receptions in 9/13(69%) and hit this line in 7/13 (53%). The Colts allow 5.8 targets per game to opposing TEs and 46.3 yards per game to opposing TEs. What’s really drawn me to this is the line being so low considering the Colts have allowed it to 12 TEs this season. Everett is athletic enough to make big splash plays on offense and Brandon Staley finds ways of getting him the ball in space. 1U
Austin Ekeler over 32.5 receiving yards (-120)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Despite the Colts defense being the one bright spots of the season, they have deficiencies against certain skills positions. I mentioned their rank against TEs, but their ability to matchup with RBs is equally as concerning. The Colts rank 28th in DVOA against RBs (specifically in the passing game) and allow 7 targets/44 yards per game to opposing RBs. Austin Ekeler hopefully didn’t party too hard on Christmas Day because he should really be able to exploit this matchup as one of the best pass-catching RBs in the league. He’s cleared this line in 10/14 games this season and his receptions line is heavily juiced in favor of over 4.5. The Colts have allowed 5 receptions of 20+ yards or more to opposing RBs this season, good for 3rd-worst in the league.
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Zack Moss +130
Keenan Allen +155
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