Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The Los Angeles Rams have had the worst Super Bowl hangover in NFL history. We’re talking cheap tequila, waking up in Tijuana with no phone type of hangover. Injuries have decimated their offensive line and have trickled there way over to Cooper Kupp, Matt Stafford, and most recently, Aaron Donald. As a result, they are currently +6 underdogs at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. Carr & Co have had a resurgence of late; they’re 3-1 over their last 4 and averaging 27.2PPG with two victories in OT. Josh Jacobs is running like a man possessed and currently the odds-on favorite to lead the league in rushing yards this season.
Baker Mayfield was picked up this week on waivers by LA and rumored to be active, but we should still expect John Wolford or Bryce Perkins at the helm. Wolford looked less than stellar last week against Seattle with 178 passing yards and 2 INTs. Let’s make lemonade out of another upsetting TNF matchup!
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Kyren Williams over 11.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This has been a staple of mine since being activated in Week 10. He’s been the go-to 3rd down back for the Rams and brought intentionally to fill that role. He’s peaked at 70% of the snaps in Kansas City, a game where they were playing from behind most of the time. And it dipped to roughly 27% in a close battle with Arizona (27-17) and a close matchup with Seattle (23-27). I’m projecting tomorrow’s matchup to get ugly. LA will be missing Aaron Donald, Travid Howard, Terrell Lewis, and David Long on defense, and I see a game script where the Rams are playing from behind.
In this situation, Williams will see an uptick in snaps. The rookie out of Notre Dame is running routes on 85% of his snaps and cleared this line in 2/4 games. The Raiders have been susceptible to pass catching RBs this season. Over the last 3, RBs have averaged 66 yards per game vs the Raiders and 55.5 per game on the season. They are dead last in DVOA vs RBs. 1.5U from me.
Don’t miss our Raiders vs Rams Same Game Parlay at +1148 odds
Van Jefferson over 36.5 receiving yards (-120)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Jefferson is the WR1 in this offense now that Kupp and Allen Robinson are done for the season. He’s seen 18 targets over the last 4 games and is coming off 19.5 yards per reception last week with Wolford under center. I expect Wolford back on Thursday night despite the questionable game tag. Jefferson had 47.5% of the teams air yards according to FTN, and 17.5 aDOT last week against a formidable CB duo in Seattle. This Thursday, Jefferson will face one of the worst pass defenses in league in Las Vegas. They rank 30th in Pass DVOA and allow 9 targets per game to WR1s. 1U
Mack Hollins over 45.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’ve been following the Raiders over the last 4 games specifically, and what I noticed to their recent resurgence has been the pass protection that Carr has been getting. Aaron Donald being out will only make his life easier Thursday night. Jalen Ramsey has caught recent heat for not tailing DK Metcalf most of the game last week. Due to Tyler Lockett being on the other side, it’s tough to blame him for not staying put. Thursday is a different story. Davante Adams should see Ramsey most of the time and that leaves Mack Hollins to feast on rookie CB Derion Kendrick. The Georgia Bulldog is ranked 111th out of 119 CBs in coverage according to PFF and the Rams rank 30th in DVOA vs WR2s as a result.
Kendrick’s claim to fame is allowing 14.4 yards per reception, which is 9th worst in the NFL amongst qualified CBs and 228 yards after catch, 12th worst in the league. Hollins has accumulated 29 targets over the last 4 games and should hit this with only 4 receptions. 0.5U
Don’t miss our 2 Raiders vs Rams touchdown scorer best bets!
Raiders vs Rams anytime touchdown scorer picks
Mack Hollins +200
Ben Skowronek +450
