Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The first game of Week 18 has the Kansas City Chiefs traveling to Las Vegas to take on the Raiders. The Chiefs can clinch the #1 overall seed in the AFC with a victory, and Patrick Mahomes has the chance to break Peyton Manning’s single season passing record with 430 yards on the day. Travis Kelce needs only 117 yards to pass his own record for most receiving yards in a season by a TE. For the Raiders, they are looking to finish the season on a high note. After battling the 49ers last week in an OT loss, Jarrett Stidham looks to leave a positive impression on the coaching staff to bring him back for next season with the opportunity to compete for a starting role. In the Week 5 matchup between these two AFC West teams, the Chiefs squeaked out a 30-29 victory at home. Let’s take a look at the best player props for this matchup.
Check out our Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders predictions
Darren Waller (LVR) over 33.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
It’s no secret, Jarrett Stidham looked impressive against the 49ers last week. He’s been in this offense for 3 years under McDaniel and was finally given the opportunity to start after the season withered away. Word on the street is that McDaniel wanted to turn the offense over to him earlier in the season, but he felt Carr had enough time earned with the organization to not do that to him. However, McDaniel believed the scheme would benefit from Stidham under center. That scheme has a clear focus on getting the TEs involved in the offense if you remember from the Brady/Gronkowski days of old. Last week against the #5 overall pass defense in the league, according to Football Outsiders, Waller had his best performance since Week 1. He finished with 5 targets, 3 receptions and 72 yards.
The Chiefs rank 21st overall in DVOA and allow 7.1 targets for 51.9 yards per game to opposing TEs. Waller had his highest % of snaps in the slot all season last week versus SF. His snap count was the highest it’s been since Week 4, and I expect that to take another leap Saturday afternoon. The Raiders should be playing from behind most of this game as Mahomes chases Peyton’s record, so the game script sets up well for Waller. 1.5U and an alternate line candidate if you can find it.
We have 2 Chiefs-Raiders touchdown scorer best bets!
Travis Kelce (KC) over 6.5 receptions (+115)
Line available on BetMGM at the time of publishing.
One of the more overlooked storylines this week is Travis Kelce trying to break his own record. The TE is 117 yards shy of breaking the record he set in 2020; he’s also 13 catches short of breaking Zach Ertz’s reception record of 116 for a TE, but that is less likely to fall. Either way, with Mahomes looking to set the record for most passing yards in a season, I expect him to rely on his favorite target to get it done. The line of 6.5 is something very obtainable for Kelce, considering he’s hit it in 7/16 games this season, one of which was against the LVR in Week 5.
The Raiders do a great job of limiting TEs in the yards column, but they allow the 11th most targets per game to opposing TEs. This is a game where I do not see Reid and Mahomes taking their foot off the gas late in search of Manning’s record, and instead of going the obvious route with Mahomes’ line inflated to o/u 325.5, I’d rather pivot to his running mate being funneled a lot of targets in search of breaking his own record. The bonus is that we get it at plus odds. 1U
Isaiah Pacheco (KC) over 10.5 receiving yards (-113)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I promise this is the last time I bring up Mahomes chasing a record, but it certainly helps when Pacheco has hit this in 6 straight games! The issue has been that his targets and receptions have been limited. In the 6 games he’s hit this line, he’s done it on a single reception in 3 of them. That normally would make me shy away, but luckily the Raiders are dead last in the NFL in explosive plays to opposing RBs. That’s right, they have given up 8 receptions of 20+ yards or more to opposing RBs. The next closest? The Chiefs with 7. The Raiders are ranked 31st in pass DVOA versus RBs allowing 7.5 targets and 51.3 yards per game to opposing RBs. 1U
Don’t miss our Chiefs-Raiders Same Game Parlay at +420 odds!
Anytime TD Scorers
Darren Waller +330
Marquez Valdes-Scantling+225
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